Erkki Koort ⟩ The spy from Budapest

Viktor Orbán's actions are aimed at self-aggrandizement, but it has become a threat to allies. Photo: Olivier Matthys / EPA / Scanpix

• Hungary has become unreliable as an ally
• Orbán's desire is to increase his geopolitical weight
• Putin's red lines also concern Budapest

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long since formed the internal opposition of NATO and the EU. However, it had previously not taken such a clear shape, which would become dangerous for other allies, writes Erkki Koort, security expert of Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences.

NATO gathers and there is also a place for NATO member Hungary at the summit table. As usual, the Magyars are represented by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Other participants crowd around him and inquire about life in Moscow. Viktor Orbán explains matter-of-factly and self-importantly how life is being lived in Muscovy, which canteen makes the best solyanka and how to eat roe at Putin's place. But then Orbán's dream ends and he wakes up.

Hungary's action is comparable to a situation where a football player announces that he will no longer play against the opposing team, but does not start to obstruct the home team either.

Orbán's visit to Moscow and his meeting with Putin seem like some kind of magical dream. Attempts have been made to explain this as presenting activities to an internal audience, but this is not the only or the main reason. Domestic policy is undoubtedly important, and of course domestic policy trumps foreign policy. No country can pursue a foreign policy different from its domestic policy. However, the Hungarian ruler does not care one bit about what Hungarians think of his visits in Szolnok or while laying in the waters of Lake Balaton. For this, it is not necessary to wait for the EU Council presidency.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (left) along with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico have become the internal opposition in the EU and NATO, which is eroding both organizations. In the current security political reality, this is a problem. Photo: Ludovic Marin

Rather, Orbán is seeking to increase the influence of Hungary and, of course, himself. This visit was unexpected and, of course, he did not act on behalf of the EU or NATO. However, the timing of his visit to Moscow was not accidental. The Hungarian presidency had just started, and although Orbán did not bring it up, Putin, for example, mentioned this role. If the presidency had no importance, it could have already taken place in May or June. But no, it happened a few days after the beginning of the presidency. This action was supposed to raise Orbán's position in the eyes of Kyiv (and its supporters), Moscow and Beijing. At least in his own opinion.

However, the timing of his visit to Moscow was not accidental. The Hungarian presidency had just started, and although Orbán did not bring it up, Putin, for example, mentioned this role.

The reaction of Brussels has also been very interesting. Of course, those concerned understood the connections between the EU presidency and the visits. It was immediately confirmed by Brussels that Orbán was not acting in the interests of the EU. This confirmation was necessary, but it was often noted that Orbán did not have a mandate to meet with Putin. Some information was likely accidentally left out or it was considered self-explanatory. The message that emerged was as if Orbán needed some kind of approval. Orban, nor the leader of any other member state, needs approval from anyone for any meeting. He can meet whoever he wants. Is the fact that the meeting took place a problem? Of course it is. Moscow managed to form a crack in the isolation for a moment. In many countries where the background is not reported, this will be seen in simplistic terms – the EU is sanctioning Russia, but is also meeting with it. Why should we get involved in any way?

Budapest should retreat behind the red line

Jens Stoltenberg also stated that Orbán did not represent NATO. However, each member state also represents the alliance, and such an emergence of cracks is very pleasing for Moscow.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands. October 17, 2023. Orbán is a frequent guest in Moscow. Photo: GRIGORY SYSOYEV / POOL / AFP

Orbán certainly does not believe himself to be any kind of ambassador of peace who can stop the war either. Rather, he wants to make himself count. Major powers discuss things with him, and he is like a mediator who is playing in the top league of world politics. If such a change were to occur at all, it would be temporary. After all, Hungary's role can grow momentarily in Moscow's eyes, because the Kremlin needs every lifeline. His influence with Budapest's "allies" will decrease as soon as the capitals have recovered from the first shock and agreed on the future agenda. We do not need any arbitration in this matter from our own ranks. Are you with us or with them?

In November 2021, Putin demanded the reversal of (read: withdrawal from) NATO enlargement to the 1997 borders as a so-called red line. Hungary joined NATO only in 1999. Therefore, Hungary can reverse its own accession with peace of mind. I don't think anyone would mind if Budapest took the initiative for peace here.

This may seem too harsh, but Orbán's current actions are more suited to a CIS or Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) country than a NATO and EU member state. Moreover, we cannot risk the possibility of losing the unity of the alliance, or backstabbing behavior. Hungary's action is comparable to a situation where a football player announces that he will no longer play against the opposing team, but does not start to obstruct the home team either. Can we afford it in the current security political situation?

What did Putin say?

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced that he asked Putin three questions about Ukraine in Moscow:

1. What does Putin think about existing peace initiatives?
2. What does he think about the ceasefire and peace talks and when might they take place?
3. What is Putin's vision of the post-war European security system?

Orbán did not respond to journalists' questions about Putin's answers.

Former Prime Minister of Hungary Imre Nagy in June 1958 in a secret trial where he was sentenced to death. In 1956, the USSR (Russia) overthrew the Hungarian government and drowned the uprising in blood. Photo: Still from a video

In reality, it doesn't matter what Orbán asked and what Putin said. With this secrecy, Orbán wanted to increase his political capital for the NATO summit. We know Russia's interests and we know that Putin usually lies. For a moment, Orbán helped Moscow create the illusion that they were rising in a global sense, but in reality, Hungary's weight as an ally and credibility as the EU presidency holder decreased instead.,

Orbán certainly does not believe himself to be any kind of ambassador of peace who can stop the war either. Rather, he wants to make himself count.

By the way, the beginning of Viktor Orbán's political flight was aided by the speech he gave at the reburial ceremony of Imre Nagy, the prime minister of Hungary during the 1956 uprising, in 1989. As we know, that uprising was drowned in blood and Prime Minister Nagy was assassinated by Russia's legal predecessor, the USSR. Putin and Orbán have talked about this publicly many times and Putin has admitted that it was a mistake. Is there any reason to believe that Putin is not lying this time?