Alar Kilp ⟩ Michal in Kallas' tight shoes

Meeting of the board of the Reform Party. Endorsement of the candidate for prime minister. Photo: Eero Vabamägi

• Michal can start the government game on two boards.
• Policymaking will follow the same path.
• Extraordinary decisions are no longer expected.

The metaphor of stepping into someone's shoes is used when a new person takes over someone else's job and the shoes are big or small for them depending on the achievements of the person who previously occupied the post. How tight are the shoes that Kaja Kallas is leaving to Kristen Michal? political scientist and columnist Alar Kilp asks.

In March last year, Kaja Kallas' public support for her as prime minister was around 40 percent, a year later she had a rating of 15 percent. Kristen Michal, who as recently as a week before the Reform Party's board decision had lower support in society as prime minister than Hanno Pevkur, has a long way to go. Both to reach Kaja Kallas' highest rating and to reach the rating that the Reform Party had at the time of Kallas' first two coalitions.

The assessment of Michal's leadership abilities will be based on a comparison with the 31.2 percent achieved by the Reform Party under Kallas' leadership in 2023.

In terms of the length of time served consecutively as prime minister, Kallas is in third place with three and a half years, after Andrus Ansip and Jüri Ratas. If Kristen Michal manages to hold on as party leader and prime minister until the next Riigikogu elections, he will have accumulated two years and nine months. However, he will then face Kaja Kallas' «tight shoes» – the assessment of Michal's leadership abilities will be based on a comparison with the 31.2 percent achieved by the Reform Party under Kallas' leadership in 2023.

After the elections of 2019, Kaja Kallas managed to leave the Reform Party in the opposition by making offers to different parties one by one. Now, Michal can start playing on two boards. On one board, the current trio of parties would continue. Its disadvantage is greater energy expenditure on working together and consensus and, for this reason, difficulty coming up with clear and convincing communication. On the second board are the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and some non-partisan MPs, whose takeover could result in a coalition that commands 54 or 55 seats in the Riigikogu.

In terms of policymaking, Michal plans to lead the country in the same direction that Kallas did – promising greater certainty, firm leadership, a more understandable state budget, an updated coalition agreement, more effective cuts, and clearer communication. If the coalition of two political parties manages to muster 54 seats in the Riigikogu, it will be easier to achieve all of this with a coalition like that.

It may be that people get used to extraordinary times and no longer expect extraordinary decisions from an extraordinary leader.

The practical wisdom of leadership of Kaja Kallas' third coalition involved «accepting» a decline in ratings for a certain period of time due to political decisions deemed necessary (for good statesmanship), but lacking broad public support. If the next prime minister and the Reform Party continue in the same manner, they should achieve similar results and similarly high ratings.

It may be that people get used to extraordinary times and no longer expect extraordinary decisions from an extraordinary leader. Michal is not expected to bring about tax or value revolutions. Gradual changes and practical results, clarity, and longer-term stability are expected. What is expected is not a policy driven by convictions at the expense of public support, but rather a policy that has public support, or one where the public can first be convinced of its necessity.