Next Prime Minister will be Kristen Michal

Kristen Michal waving in greeting to his party colleagues at the start of the Reform Party board meeting in his ministerial office on Friday morning. Photo: Madis Veltman

Estonia's next Prime Minister will be Kristen Michal, whose appointment to this position has been considered inevitable for years.

Michal's appointment as the new Prime Minister was decided at an extraordinary meeting of the Reform Party's board. While outgoing Prime Minister Kaja Kallas had expressed a wish for her successor to be chosen by the broader party circle at the general meeting, the board decided that the Prime Minister candidate would be named by the party's board on Saturday, June 29, and the new party chairman would be confirmed at a future date. This resolution of the board vs. general meeting decision also ended all potential intrigues. Alongside Michal, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur had also expressed a desire to run for chairman. However, his chances had already diminished due to the so-called ammunition scandal, and having had his opportunity as party chairman previously, he left it unused. Friday's decision sealed his hopes definitively.

When Pevkur was elected chairman in 2017, his support within the faction was minimal, but he rose to the position thanks to regional support. Now, Pevkur would have had any chance only through the general meeting, but the board's support is almost entirely behind Michal. Thus, after the Friday morning board meeting, Pevkur announced he would not run for chairman, citing a tight schedule and security situation as reasons. Several Reform Party members who spoke with Postimees praised this move, as Pevkur had no real chance of success, making it pointless to fight.

Interestingly, while Pevkur had previously suggested that the new chairman should be chosen by the general meeting, in a Friday interview with Kuku radio, Michal subtly criticized this, stating that he would have accepted either the general meeting or the board's choice, as a candidate shouldn't pick how the new prime minister is decided.

Has the public forgiven?

The journey to the Stenbock House for Michal has been long, rough, and at times, filled with suffering. The 2012 plastic bag scandal put his aspirations on hold for a while, and in 2017, he lost the Reform Party chairmanship to Pevkur, which was a significant shock. One board member told Postimees that Michal's recent election results indicate that people have forgiven him for the plastic bag scandal and that both he and the party have learned from the past turmoil.

While it's clear that Michal will focus more on domestic politics and less on foreign affairs—opposite to Kallas—he aims to distinguish himself from Kallas through stability as Prime Minister. All three of Kallas's governments were, to put it mildly, turbulent and full of conflicts. Michal, on the other hand, seeks stability. Much will depend on the Prime Minister's personality. While Kallas was spontaneous and full of surprises, Michal, although characterized as somewhat cunning, has grown more calm, planning, and patient over time, and is known as a very strong organizer (a trait Kallas sometimes seemed to lack). Patience also describes how Michal endured setbacks to finally reach his time.

Two or three?

If Michal desires a stable and trouble-free term, the question arises about how the internal strife within Eesti 200 will affect his choices. Their time in government has been one continuous crisis and problem after another. To make matters worse, with coalition talks about to begin, it's still unknown who the new chairman of Eesti 200 will be (currently either Kristina Kallas or Hendrik Johannes Terras). Could Michal thus throw Eesti 200 overboard and try to form a coalition with just the Social Democrats? Together, they would currently have 52 votes, making a viable two-party coalition possible with the defection of some disgruntled Eesti 200 members or securing the votes of politically homeless Enn Eesmaa and Kersti Sarapuu. Discussions with MPs have taken place, but nothing is locked in yet. Sources told Postimees that the undecided Eesti 200 members are waiting for the general meeting to make their decision. Terras, for instance, has not heard such talks and believes there's no scenario where he would leave his party.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is continuing with the current three-party coalition. Bringing in Isamaa instead of the Social Democrats or Eesti 200 is almost entirely ruled out, as there's no motivation, need, or logical basis for both the Reform Party and Isamaa.

What else might we expect from the new government? For example, the much-criticized activity-based budgeting issue will be addressed. "The state budget must be understandable," Michal noted on Kuku radio. He pointed out that for several years, budget cuts have been made, only to suddenly find a hundred million in unused funds. "It can't be like that. Alongside today's budget version, there must also be one where decision-makers and the public can follow the numbers easily. If financial experts like Jürgen Ligi and Aivar Sõerd say they can't always find the right line immediately, then it's even harder for ordinary people or journalists."

Coalition talks will officially start after the NATO summit in Washington, around July 12. Before that, parties will engage in preliminary discussions to explore what's possible and what each side wants.