MEELIS OIDSALU ⟩ Hot half-year in defense ends with strategic bang

Meelis Oidsalu, editor of the «Power and Security» section of Fookus. Photo: Mihkel Maripuu

• The daunting first six months of this year injected confidence into Europe.
• The consequences of Donald Trump's possible election as US president may not be devastating.
• Estonian authorities have responded to Russia's hybrid war with dignity and confidence.

We likely no longer fear the potential impact of a Donald Trump presidency on Ukraine as much as we did last fall because the fear of war has finally awakened Europe, editor Meelis Oidsalu writes in his summary of the last six months of developments in power and security.

The past six months can be called a period of renewed hope. It took eight months before Washington decided to resume military aid to Ukraine.

We do not know what the US administration’s policy on Ukraine will be, but we now know what it feels like when the world's most powerful country withdraws its support from behind Ukraine. Besides fear, this period also fostered confidence in Europe. Russia, although pushing its forces on the Ukrainian fronts at unprecedented human costs, did not cause the feared extensive collapse of Ukrainian defense.

Buoy thieves akin to shoplifters

In today's Fookus interview, Lt. Gen. Mikko Heiskanen, a Finnish war economy officer, says that within the next two years, the West will be able to catch up with and surpass Russia’s current triple ammunition production capacity. Europe has begun to take the issue of the war industry and ammunition stockpiles more seriously, partly due to the shock of the United States' withdrawal. Consequently, the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency no longer seems as frightening as before.

One goal of the increasingly dangerous and widespread wave of Russian hybrid attacks in Europe is undoubtedly to exhaust us with constant fear and the resulting uncertainty. A tired population prone to extremities becomes fragmented, quarrelsome, and loses its sense of direction.

Europe will manage because, despite growing cost-of-living problems, the European Union is an economic giant compared to Russia. This is also why Russia is striving to prevent the EU from fully utilizing its superior resources to defend Ukraine.

One goal of the increasingly dangerous and widespread wave of Russian hybrid attacks in Europe is undoubtedly to exhaust us with constant fear and the resulting uncertainty. A tired population prone to extremities becomes fragmented, quarrelsome, and loses its sense of direction. Russia limits itself to this exhaustion strategy because it lacks the strength or courage to engage in direct combat. The stolen navigation buoys on the Narva River, intended to aid Estonian fishermen, became global news as another example of Russia's attacks on EU borders. Stealing buoys under the cover of night is more petty theft than a show of force.

Banner reading «War Criminal Putin» on the wall of Hermann Castle in Narva. Photo: Jānis Laizāns

Russian border guards (FSB) were caught on Estonian border surveillance cameras just like shoplifters on security cameras. The story of the Narva River buoys should be viewed in the context of other acts of hybrid war. One possible context for the FSB's fascination with buoys is the gleaming, bloody face of Vladimir Putin displayed on the wall of Hermann Castle in Narva.

Thieves are usually apprehended, and proceedings are initiated. No such actions were taken against the Russian border guards.

Responses to such hybrid misdeeds must always be considered on a broad scale and creatively. Symmetrical reactions are often not the most beneficial in hybrid warfare. This does not mean we should not continuously develop our self-assertion skills. Russian airplanes stopped violating Estonian airspace over Vaindloo Island after an Estonian air force officer took up a radio and warned the Russian aircraft against entering Estonian airspace.

The Estonian Ministry of the Interior handled hybrid deterrence very well when Russia attempted a migration attack in Narva at the end of last year, similar to those in Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. A clear signal was sent to the adversary – if actions exceed a certain measurable limit, the border will simply be closed, leaving tens of thousands of Russian citizens without access to their homeland via Narva. Since Finland had already closed its border checkpoints, this threat also affected the Russian citizens who were traveling from Finland to Russia through Narva.

Importance of ammunition stockpiles

Classic deterrence methods also work in hybrid warfare, however, they require timely and concrete actions both in words and deeds. This is what Secretary General of the Defense Ministry Kusti Salm demanded from his political superiors in a process that could be deemed the biggest defense scandal of the decade, as he handled Estonian political customs like Joosep Toots, a character from Oskar Luts' novel «Spring», handled his pistol, rigging it up to go off remotely to prevent it from blowing up in his face.

The Defense Ministry's press conference summarizing the years of the Ukraine war. Kusti Salm, secretary-general of the Ministry of Defense. Photo: Mihkel Maripuu

In the new NATO defense plans approved last year, Estonia was tasked with acquiring a certain amount of ammunition stockpile. The allies defending Estonia have their own prescribed ammunition stockpile norms, but no one will procure Estonia's stockpile for us, as allies already need to buy ammunition for their forces to defend Estonia.

Before the parliamentary elections, the Ministry of Defense circulated a concept paper on defense bonds to address the ammunition shortage. After the elections, the topic was left unresolved, likely because the defense minister could not explain to the administration why he was not fulfilling the promise made to NATO.

Before the parliamentary elections, the Ministry of Defense circulated a concept paper on defense bonds to address the ammunition shortage. After the elections, the topic was left unresolved, likely because the defense minister could not explain to the administration why he was not fulfilling the promise made to NATO.

Without meeting the minimum ammunition stockpile requirements, the new NATO Baltic defense plan, intended to deter the enemy from the first meter, will not work. This has been reiterated for a year by Gen. Martin Herem as well as by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli.