KALEV STOICESCU ⟩ Sending allied forces to Ukraine not ruled out, but only as a last resort

Member of Riigikogu Kalev Stoicescu on the «Otse Postimehest» («Live from Postimees») webcast. Host: Pavel Sobolev. Photo: Mihkel Maripuu

It is clear that the deployment of allied forces to Ukraine must be a joint decision of NATO allies, based on consensus or an overwhelming majority, as a coalition of will. It must be carefully considered and prepared as a last resort to support Ukraine, Kalev Stoicescu, chairman of the national defense committee of the Riigikogu (Estonia 200), writes.

The first person to speak on this topic was French President Emmanuel Macron. Some allied countries were irritated, while others remained notably silent. No one dared to openly commend his statements. In Estonia, too, there were commentators and figures who, without waiting for Russia's reaction, accused Macron of cheap populism and the like.

Unfortunately, life has moved on, and this topic is being discussed more and more, with Macron's rhetoric increasingly recognized. However, major European powers, including France, should contribute even more to assisting Ukraine and strengthening Europe's defense.

No taboos

In an existential struggle, there should be no red lines or taboos because, as has repeatedly happened, Western allies are ultimately forced to cross the red lines they have drawn for themselves and publicly discuss taboo topics. It is important to keep in mind that everything depends on the dynamics of Russia's war of aggression and conquest, meaning how effectively Ukraine can repel Russia's attacks and liberate its territory. Democratic countries provide Ukraine with assistance in the form of weapons, ammunition, and other equipment, as well as training and other measures.

The minimum goal is the liberation of Ukrainian territory, but the maximum goal is the economic and political weakening of Russia to a level that does not allow it to sustain its war. We must discuss the deployment of allied forces to Ukraine in certain places, to certain extents, and for certain purposes. Why should we exclude or fear these questions? Especially since Russia has become nervous in this context, fearing allied intervention. We must always remember the fact that Russia cannot be provoked. Russia provokes itself if it wants to. It always finds reasons.

British Army's 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team Commander Big. Gen. Mark Berry (left) and Commander of the NATO enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) Battlegroup Brig. Gen. Giles Harris. Photo: Kuido Saarpuu

Joint Decision

We are increasingly supporting Ukraine with defensive measures. We are putting more and more pressure on Russia, including using its frozen assets. Why must we define an escalation level, artificially and unjustifiably, at which Russia is considered «provoked»?

Any deployment of allied forces to Ukraine must be a joint decision of NATO allies, based on consensus or an overwhelming majority, as a coalition of will. It must be carefully considered and prepared as a last resort to support Ukraine. However, the decision on when it is necessary to apply the last resort will be made by the allies when the relevant situation arises. Not now and publicly, so that Russia knows in advance under which circumstances we are ready to act.

For a contingent larger than 100 troops, the decision must be made by the Riigikogu, according to the Constitution.

Such strategic ambiguity, so to speak, must start working in our favor. We do not exclude anything. All options are on the table. By the way, last fall the Riigikogu adopted a decision (317 OE) that allows, if necessary, to send up to 100 soldiers in the current calendar year on a peace operation led by NATO or its member state, as well as the EU or the UN, for the first time. The relevant decision is made by the government based on the National Defense Act, taking into account the position of the national defense committee of the Riigikogu. Therefore, a domestic legislative basis exists on which decisions can be made if necessary. For a larger contingent, more than 100 soldiers, the decision must be made by the Riigikogu, according to the Constitution.

Finally, public discussion on this issue must remain practical and adequately reflect the real situation. We are not currently in a situation that requires such decisions in NATO or individual member states, but we cannot rule out that such a situation may arise, sooner or later. The more aid is given to Ukraine and the more effectively Ukraine can use the received aid, as well as its own resources, the less likely it will be necessary to deploy allied forces to Ukraine.