Erkki Koort ⟩ The man whose future job will show Russia's lines of power

Former secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev (L), is a very close and loyal ally of Putin. The likelihood that he will retire is very small. Photo: Sergei Karpukhin/AFP PHOTO/POOL/Scanpix

• Belousov was brought in from outside in order to reduce the impact of the army.
• Patrushev is too closely connected to Putin to simply disappear.
• Shoigu is considerably less capable than Patrushev.

The ruler of Russia replaced Sergei Shoigu, who had served as defense minister for 12 years, and replaced him with Andrey Belousov, who has no military background. However, even more interesting is the next position of Nikolai Patrushev, writes Erkki Koort, a security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences.

When Putin had the extension of his term of office formalized in mid-March, it could be expected that some changes in the government would come. There were two reasons for this. Firstly, there had been a standstill for too long and some kind of change was needed, and secondly, power had become too cemented in the Ministry of Defense over many years. With the end of the president's term, the government's time also ended, and making changes at that moment does not seem extraordinary, at least to some.

The appointment of Andrey Belousov as minister of defense actually shows dissatisfaction with the state of affairs. Someone from outside was most likely brought in to break the ties within the army, to have the officers be put «on coals», and this someone also had to understand numbers and the budget. Of course, Belousov’s appointment will no stop stealing in the Russian army, but it will slightly break established ties, because he is not in the so-called food chain. Also, an economy background will help to direct resources more towards war.

Shoigu was appointed secretary of the Security Council, which is headed by Putin himself, and his deputy is former president Dmitry Medvedev. Although this job does not come with a very major opportunity to manage the budget, this position has given Patrushev a lot of influence. His good rapport with and loyalty to Putin secured him a position in which he was even named vice president at times. Clearly, his power was greater than that of government ministers and often the prime minister as well. While Putin used the Security Council as an advisory body, it was a so-called siloviki government, where matters were actually decided.

Someone from outside was most likely brought in to break the ties within the army, to have the officers be put «on coals», and this someone also had to understand numbers and the budget.

The moving of Patrushev is surprising, because the secretary of the Security Council is often used by Russia for activities and negotiations where, for example, the foreign minister is too weak or simply unsuitable. Therefore, it is very strange that Shoigu was appointed in Patrushev's place, because he is definitely not a figure with such reach and level.

When it was announced that Patrushev was moving to another job, it was thought that the head of the security service FSB or foreign intelligence service SVR would be replaced. However, it turned out that all the heads of the special services will remain in office, i.e. Alexander Bortnikov will continue in the FSB, Sergey Naryshkin in the SVR, Viktor Zolotov in the National Guard and Dmitry Kochnev in the Federal Protective Service. The ministers of internal affairs, foreign affairs and emergency situations also remained in office. Moreover, Patrushev has already been the head of the FSB.

It is not very likely that Patrushev will enter retirement or was moved due to a loss of confidence. His son became deputy prime minister in the government and such a move is unlikely in such a moment. Rather, he is moving to a more influential position, because he is a very important person in Putin's power vertical. Nevertheless, his future position will reveal quite a bit about the Kremlin's lines of power.