HANNES TOOMSALU ⟩ A major offensive by Russia seems to have begun

Retired colonel, leader of the re-establishment of the Pärnumaa district of the Kaitseliit (Defense League) volunteer corps Hannes Toomsalu Photo: Urmas Luik

The Russians started an offensive in the direction of Kharkiv, retired colonel Hannes Toomsalu (Isamaa) writes.

Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, head of Ukraine’s ground forces, said in an interview with The Economist that the critical phase of the war will come in the next two months. «Russia knows that if we receive enough weapons within a month or two, the situation could turn against them.» That Russia knows this is shown by the increasing number of attacks and the fact that they are more desperate and wasteful of manpower. Which has also caught the eye of the world. Missile attacks on energy infrastructure also serve the purpose of blocking Western aid. In peacetime and following the example of the West, Ukraine has also electrified a large part of its railway transport. However, help comes mostly by rail.

A month or two ago, the Ukrainians were still sure that there would be no Russian attack from the direction of Kharkiv. The last month has been quiet, but if I were to revise my notes, then the movement of Russian units to the north was written about a few weeks ago. Recently, Kraken commander Nemichev wrote that the occupiers are planning an attack on the Kharkiv region in mid-May.

There are 40,000-50,000 aggressor soldiers gathered behind the border and it is unlikely they are there in defense against the Freedom of Russia Legion. He estimated that the Russian army will not be able to enter the city, as the defense is now much stronger. Their goals would be to cut off Kharkiv from Kyiv or create a 10 kilometer wide buffer zone. It seems that the Ukrainians had some information about the coming attack, but the attack that started at night and early in the morning was still a surprise to them. There was no information about the attack in the early morning news.

A month or two ago, the Ukrainians were still sure that there would be no Russian attack from the direction of Kharkiv.

According to the head of Kharkiv region, several Russian intelligence groups tried to cross the border in the Kharkiv region, but they were repelled. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announces: «Ukraine's defense forces are protecting strongholds in the Kharkiv region. During the past 24 hours, the enemy used guided air missiles to carry out airstrikes in the direction of Vovchansk. At nightfall, the Russian occupiers increased the fire pressure on our defense line with the support of artillery. Around 5 a.m., the enemy tried to break through our defense line with armored vehicles. As of now, these attacks have been repelled; battles of varying intensity continue. Reserve units have been deployed to strengthen the defense of the frontline area. The defense forces of Ukraine continue to slow down the enemy's offensive.»

However, according to independent sources, the Russian armed forces have launched a major offensive against the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine. The North group has armored convoys and mechanized infantry, heavy artillery and tactical combat aircraft. The size of the group, as mentioned, is between 40,000 and 50,000 soldiers. It has crossed the Ukrainian border from the Belgorod region of western Russia along several routes.

The enemy tried to enter in several border settlements – the villages of Strilechia, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka. Also in the Hatyshche and Pletenivka settlements. The main Russian forces in the attack are the infantry with the support of a small amount of equipment. They do not dare to move beyond the mentioned settlements, perhaps the involvement of larger forces is expected. The resources currently used by the enemy are not enough for a deep advance, but the enemy is destabilizing the border areas. It is not known how much core power it is willing to use for this maneuver.

The resources currently used by the enemy are not enough for a deep advance, but the enemy is destabilizing the border areas.

Delivery of Ukrainian reserve elements to the area is underway to stop the enemy's advance. However, according to Ukrainian sources, the Russians have nevertheless managed to establish several bridgeheads in the area, with the Ukrainian defenders initially suffering significant casualties from the surprise attack. So far, the Russians have reported capturing several border villages that were in the gray zone. Strilechia, Pylna, Borysivka and Pletenivka came under Russian control. There has been no confirmation yet and no deep breakthroughs observed.

The heaviest battles and shootings are taking place in the area of the city of Vovchansk. EW and UAV systems are also being actively used. Footage appeared from Ukrainian sources of the loss of Russian tanks and personnel in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine, and from the fighters of the Gostri Kartuzy unit, indicating the destruction of the equipment of the occupiers in the border area near the village of Pylna when entering the settlement. The situation towards Vovchansk is very difficult at present. It was a difficult night, says a soldier of 24th Separate Assault Battalion «Aidar». The involvement of Russia's main forces is also expected in the near future. It is only about 70 kilometers from Vovchansk to Kharkiv.

Information on the battles of the last few days shows that the intensity of the Russian attacks in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut region has not decreased, but rather is increasing. The addition of Kharkiv indicates that a major offensive by the aggressor has begun. The decisive factor will be whether Ukraine can destroy the invading forces or not. In my opinion, this is the Russians' last desperate ... the war will likely not end there.