TOOMAS LUMAN ⟩ National defense needs a 1.6-billion-euro loan. And it needs it now!

The K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer. Photo: Estonian defense forces

• Observing the current situation in Ukraine, we have much to learn.
• The need for investment has also been emphasized by Martin Herem.
• To defend Estonia, it is essential to invest in ammunition, and to do it now.

The Estonian society is reaching an agreement that 1.6 billion euros is needed in the near future, more specifically right now, to strengthen its national defense. The only point of discussion is the methods and sources of funding for this investment, Toomas Luman, chairman of the supervisory board of the National Defense Promotion Foundation, writes.

In other words: it is between taking out a loan, introducing a national defense tax, issuing national bonds or funding it from the regular state budget. All these options are entirely acceptable, if it were not for one simple problem: the investment needs to be made today and immediately. The necessity has been particularly emphasized by General Martin Herem, the commander of the defense forces.

The essence of the problem, however, is very simple. In order to survive a potential military conflict, Estonia needs to destroy a certain amount of the enemy's capability right at the start of the aggression. This means both the capabilities that have entered our territory and those supporting it from Russian territory. In simple terms: everything that serves the enemy's war machine must be wiped off the face of the earth, unfortunately including the enemy's manpower.

This is the only approach enabling Estonia to defend itself. The aggressor must know that we are serious about this. The need for indirect fire capabilities is clear to everyone. And unfortunately, it cannot wait two, three, or four years; this capability must be available immediately.

We have much to learn from Ukraine.

Although the head of the defense forces has been criticized for his statement that Estonia could potentially win a future war—considered by some as an arrogant or unrealistic stance—this actually reflects people's fear and submissiveness.

Looking at what is currently happening in Ukraine, from which we have much to learn, it is very clear that ammunition is the keyword, especially critical at the start of aggression. There is a shortage of it both here and among our allies. And the potential aggressor is very much aware of this. The Russian war industry has been put back on track, and its output currently far exceeds the total ammunition produced and stored in all NATO countries.

Let us look briefly at a future, where Russia emerges from the war in Ukraine with a loss but still maintains its imperialist ambitions. It will take a couple of years, and it will have replenished its supplies, its combat readiness will have increased, and the factories will be operating at full speed again. Why not give it a go? Without naming any country, let us generalize that it wants to test NATO's effectiveness.

All other options certainly also exist, but the political debate can last for years, and time is definitely not on our side in this process.

At this very moment, NATO's capability will be committed to defense, wherever this provocation may occur. This includes our soldiers and ammunition. It is very difficult for people to come to terms with this realization because most people believe that it will not happen to us, which allows for lengthy discussions on whether and how to do it. Estonia has understood this threat, but other NATO members are still under a blissful illusion, making it politically challenging for them to explain this to their citizens.

Therefore, to defend Estonia, it is necessary to invest in ammunition, and to do it now. And the fastest option for this is undoubtedly taking out a loan. All other options certainly also exist, but the political debate can last for years, and time is definitely not on our side in this process. By taking out a loan now and thus resolving the most pressing problem facing Estonia's national defense, we still have the option to discuss the establishment of a defense tax and its possible nature and use.