ERKKI KOORT ⟩ Preconditions for another Georgia-Russia war are already in place

People have taken to the streets in Tbilisi to protest against the ruling party Georgian Dream's plan to create a law on foreign agents similar to that of Moscow. Although Georgians need support on this path, the country's future first and foremost depends on them. Photo: GIORGI ARJEVANIDZE

• Georgia wavers between Russia and the West.
• The current Georgian parliament is in the pocket of an oligarch.
• Moscow's influence is currently strong in Tbilisi.

Unrest continues in Georgia over the government wanting a closer union with Russia, whereas the people predominantly look towards Europe. The situation is somewhat reminiscent of that in Ukraine 10 years ago, but it is also growing into a color revolution, Erkki Koort, security expert at the Academy of Security Sciences and Postimees, writes.

The unrest began mainly because the ruling party, Georgian Dream, aims to adopt a law on foreign agents. When the plan, which was initially kept secret, was revealed and caused protests, it shocked the government and parliament, as the unrest began spontaneously. Now that the bill is in parliament, the opposition has also invested more in organizing the protests. However, the opposition is weak, divided, and partially controlled.

Europe or Russia

Georgia is predominantly regarded as looking towards the European Union and NATO, but the country is strongly moving away from its earlier goals. Georgia submitted an application to join the European Union on March 3, 2022, and received candidate status at the end of 2023 on the condition that it implements a series of recommended reforms.

Moscow is currently able to control Georgia largely due to large financial flows, fear-based communication, and the oligarch Ivanishvili.

As things stand, Georgia is presently effectively distancing itself from the European Union, although its citizens support the opposite direction. This is especially noticeable among the youth, as there are many students and high school students among the protesters. Whether these protests will grow into something else will be shown by the near future. This naturally depends on the position the masses take. If Georgians continue to waver between two worlds, trying to benefit from both sides, then all the prerequisites are present for remaining in Russia's sphere of influence, and the only way out is war.

On August 8, 2008, Russia attacked Georgia. A NATO summit in April of the same year was interpreted by Moscow in such a way that Georgia and Ukraine were left in its sphere of influence. The photo depicts a convoy of Russian military equipment near Tskhinvali in South Ossetia on August 9, 2008 (Ukraine is destroying about the same amount in the war each day. Photo: MUSA SADULAYEV/AP

Some confusion has been observed both in the Georgian government and parliament, as well as by the main oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili and even Moscow. Ivanishvili controls the ruling party, Georgian Dream, and also part of the opposition. As the protests against the foreign agents law had continued for a frighteningly long time, the oligarch himself came forward to speak to the public. This action signaled a desire use his influence to direct processes in a favorable direction. In his speech, Ivanishvili announced that Georgia will probably one day be an EU member, but currently, the European «war party» and gay people are dragging Georgia into war. As one expert who is very familiar with the situation in Georgia said, Ivanishvili's speech sounded like his master's voice. Ivanishvili is considered to be strongly connected to the Kremlin. However, this speech also conveyed a message showing Moscow's concerns about Georgia's membership in the EU. A parallel can be drawn with Hungary and Slovakia, as Moscow is undoubtedly pleased with the EU including countries whose membership is marked by divisive messages and actions.

New revolution or old debt

It is difficult to say what will happen next in Georgia. There is no doubt that Moscow sees another color revolution starting in its area of interest. Everything is being done to suppress it. Russia cannot risk Georgia slipping out of its sphere of influence, especially since it lost a significant part of its credibility in the region due to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Meanwhile, Russia continues to occupy a third of the country and is building a war port in the occupied Abkhazia.

It is surprising how quickly Georgia's power structures have moved away from democratic principles.

Developments in the power structures are important. Until the Rose Revolution in 2003, the entire Georgian police and security services were essentially comprised of former Militsiya and KGB. After that, security systems were reformed to a very significant extent, and there was a complete change of staff in many places. However, we currently see excessive use of force on protesters and will undoubtedly soon hear numerous stories of detained protesters having been tortured. In addition, the Georgian State Security Service announced in September 2023 that the Georgian Legion fighting on Ukraine's side is planning a coup. The Legion consists of approximately 800–1,500 people and is considered a very combat-capable unit. Their return would undoubtedly cause problems for the current government, although the unit is currently involved in Ukraine. However, it is surprising how quickly Georgia's power structures have moved away from democratic principles.

Despite a reform in Georgia's security system, it has quickly moved away from democratic principles. Riot police blocking a street near the parliament in Tbilisi on April 16, 2024. Photo: David Mdzinarishvili

One possibility for why the current Georgian government is trying to get along with Moscow is the hope of getting back Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia currently recognizes these occupied territories as independent states, and unlike Ukrainian territories, they have not yet been annexed. There has been talk of this several times, but now the possibility that Moscow might agree to some type of federation with Georgia is being assessed.

Power of money

Moscow is currently able to control Georgia largely due to large financial flows, fear-based communication, and the oligarch Ivanishvili. Ivanishvili came to power in 2012 and also served as Georgia's prime minister for a year. After that, he has been somwhat out of big politics, but nonetheless influencing it openly and blatantly.

Ivanishvili was born in Georgia as the fifth child in a large family. The family lived in deep poverty and could hardly afford anything. His background later ensured support from rural residents. In the 1990s, he lived in Russia and was actively involved in business. He was also a mediator in various business disputes involving power redistribution. It would be more accurate to say that these were disputes between criminal groups, where opponents were shot with grenade launchers. However, Ivanishvili could not have been a mediator in such disputes without a criminal background and strong support from law enforcement agencies.

Leader and owner of the ruling party Georgian Dream, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. His strong ties with Moscow ensure Georgia remains in the Kremlin's sphere of influence. The photo depicts the party celebrating its election victory on October 31, 2020. Photo: ZURAB KURTSIKIDZE

In the 2000s, he lived in France and returned to Georgia around 2011. His current position can be partially compared to that of Ukraine's pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk. He has tremendous control, virtually unlimited resources, and a strong connection to the Kremlin. Additionally, Ivanishvili is cunning and clever. Before the last elections, he announced that since many Georgians do not know how to handle money and have taken out payday loans, he would forgive these loans if he won. He also underscored that this was not election advertising. Georgian Dream did well, but Ivanishvili only eliminated hopeless payday loans, and not those that had been paid properly.

In summary, the developments are significant for Moscow, Europe, but especially for Georgia. Mistakes made by NATO and Europe, particularly by German chancellor Angela Merkel at the 2008 NATO Bucharest summit, determine the situation in Ukraine and Georgia today. However, the main responsibility lies with the Georgians. Hopefully, they have learned from 2008 that no one will come to fight for them if they do not do it themselves. Based on the current situation, accepting money from Russia is seemingly not considered shameful, despite the latter state occupying a third of Georgia.