ANALYSIS ⟩ Putin's statement about Navalny's death shows uncertainty and possible cracks in the regime

Russian president Vladimir Putin. Illustration: Johan Elm

• The actual «election results» are probably worrying for the Kremlin.
• Putin is not a brilliant strategist in his statements, rather he reacts.
• The proportion of the silent opposition in Russia is evidently higher than it seems.

The latest statement by Putin, who has just extended his term of office, confirms the earlier hypothesis about Navalny's death and shows hidden problems in society, Erkki Koort, security expert of Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes.

When Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny died in a Far North prison camp last month, few believed that the long arm of the Kremlin was not behind it. There were too many coincidences as well as doubts created by the authorities themselves. There were information leaks about the employees of the security service FSB who visited the prison camp, and here and there the public also managed to gather information from the prisoners in that colony. In the case of the latter, however, the question always remains as to how much of this information was supposed to be released to the public in a controlled manner anyway.

Putin's behavior is often characterized by reacting to processes that have taken place, rather than by a brilliant strategy.

The Moscow regime messed about when it came to handing over the body, demanding that the funeral be held behind closed doors and without public attention. Navalny's mother refused, and the subsequent procession to the oppositionist's grave was impressive. Then the Kremlin tried to ban access to churches and funeral homes. Since Navalny could not stay on earth, someone had to perform the service. The funeral service was directed to a remote church. Even getting a hearse driver became so difficult due to the FSB's obstructive actions that it is possible that in the end some FSB member had to get behind the wheel himself to maintain control over the event.

All this is from the rubric – prior events in a nutshell. On March 18, after extending his term, Putin issued a statement in which, among other things, he seemingly expressed regret for Navalny's death and stated that he was prepared to swap him. Putin's message was that every death is regrettable. The Russian ruler claimed that this is not the first death in prisons, and moreover, prison deaths occur in the United States as well. And not one time. His whole speech and demeanor showed no remorse for the death, nor was there any real desire to exchange prisoners.

Why make such a statement at all?

Yes, this was asked. It was a question from a US journalist. However, it seems particularly strange to issue this statement after receiving at least 87 percent of support in the Russian «elections». There seem to be several reasons for this that are not yet known to the public.

This was one of the few times that Putin calls Navalny by name at all. Usually he has said «this person» or something similar. So what caused Putin to behave this way?

If you consider the number of residents in Moscow, the number of people mourning Navalny publicly is not too large, but apparently the current master of the Kremlin also knows how many mourners there were who did not come out on this occasion.

First of all, the authorities were surprised that so many people came to Navalny's grave despite the obstacles. If you consider the number of residents in Moscow, the number of people mourning Navalny publicly is not too large, but apparently the current master of the Kremlin also knows how many mourners there were who did not come out on this occasion.

Second, the Kremlin knows what the election results actually were. There were «noon» actions, where people went to the polling stations at the same time, and some definitely ruined ballots as well. According to official data, support for Putin was 87 percent, but the president's administration is still summarizing the real picture. It is likely that Putin did actually receive a large share of the votes, but evidently the amount of so-called votes against was surprisingly large.

Thirdly, the considerable number of actions organized at polling stations was surprising. It was not on a large scale considering the size of Russia, but compared to before, it was significantly more numerous and visible. Moreover, the authorities know how many such actions the FSB prevented.

The fourth reason is undoubtedly the events around Belgorod. One region is sinking out of control, and although Moscow will probably restore its power monopoly there in the coming days, it is still a «bad example» for other regions.

Putin's statements about Navalny are not random and are based on circumstances that are not yet known to the public. The «elections» were a litmus test and apparently the Kremlin has interpreted the situation in such a way that it is necessary to issue some targeted statements. Putin's behavior is often characterized by reacting to processes that have taken place, rather than by a brilliant strategy. As he is trying to anticipate society's expectations to some extent, he also needs to calm down potential Navalny supporters. The statement that there was readiness to exchange the former oppositionist serves exactly this purpose. For some people, it has a hypnotic effect.

In any case, some conclusions have been drawn in the Kremlin and they do not seem to be only rosy. What developments will take place in Russia will become clear in the following days, when new facts about the «elections» come to light.