ILMAR RAAG ⟩ This is not only a matter of failed integration. The problem is deeper

Ilmar Raag, strategic communications expert (Right-wingers). Photo: Konstantin Sednev

The situation is bad, but not because the integration policy has failed, Ilmar Raag (Right-wingers) writes with regard to the strong support for Putin among Russian citizens living in Estonia.

From time to time, especially now, during a major war, people appear who talk about the failure of Estonia's integration policy. Chill!

Give me an example of where the integration of 30 percent of the population with a relatively homogeneous foreign background has yielded a better result in 30 years? There are no such examples. The reason foremost is that there will never be a population in which even 90 percent of the population believes in the same social happiness.

But above all, we understand that even the best integration policy is not stronger than two factors:

1. The Russian Federation is essentially a national chauvinist state, where the superiority of the Russian nation over other nations has been consciously cultivated for at least 200 years. Giving up the Russian identity requires a very strong motivation for a new identity.
2. The opposing pressure is being exerted by Estonia, which is a nation state. We do not have an ideology that considers Estonians greater, but we nevertheless expect that people living in Estonia will become Estonians over time.

If Estonia were to become poorer, you’ll see how bad things really are with our integration.

So, there are two different value propositions in competition with each other here. We expect the Russians here to give up some part of their identity, but in reality this requires Estonia to have something significant to offer. Our only argument at present is based on our economic success to date. If Estonia were to become poorer, you’ll see how bad things really are with our integration.

The recommendation «If you don't like it, leave!» is a little too simple for real life.

With the realistically best integration policy, 90 percent of people with a Russian background will speak Estonian in 30 years. 30 percent of them no longer use Russian at home. Another 30 percent speak Estonian without an accent.

But in any case, about 20 percent of people will remain who believe that Estonia has not behaved honestly towards them. Another 30 percent would live and work somewhere else, but they just don’t know how to leave. It is interesting that there are also at least 20 percent of Estonians who think that the Estonian state has failed.

This is the ideal situation where society is stable as a whole.

But let us come back to those who voted for Putin in Estonia. Their behavior is very normal because Vladimir I has forced them into an extreme identity crisis. No realistic integration policy would have prevented this.

But the truth is, if we cannot make a better value proposition now, we have more to lose than integration policy. Russian propaganda actually plays a relatively small role here. The problem is deeper.