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Viktor Orbán is campaigning against Ukraine more aggressively every day. He blocks EU funding for as long as he can, shakes hands with Putin, sends his foreign minister to dine with Sergei Lavrov on the day of Navalny’s funeral, or visits Donald Trump to parrot Russian propaganda together, Bogáta Timár writes.
The latter is especially significant because the two politicians came out of Mar-a-Lago with a pretty straightforward message: the war is funded by the West, and once that funding runs out, the war is over. Therefore, the way to end the war is to stop supporting Ukraine.
Of course this thinking is not new – it has enough supporters in Estonia, too. But Orbán and Trump are very good at selling it. They know exactly how to paint the picture of the corrupt deep state stretching this horrible conflict to serve their own interests, while the war would be over in 24 hours if it was up to the real patriots in the room – Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump. And who wouldn’t want to end the war as soon as possible?
Trump, of course, has an election to win. For that purpose, the war in Ukraine is a handy tool. Westerners are getting tired of the war, from a shallow perspective Biden’s military aid does not seem to make much impact, and since most have no idea about the horrors of Russia, the only thing they see is a standing conflict with pointless killing, and a looming nuclear war. If Trump promises to end it, it sounds good.
But why is Orbán chiming in with all his might? He has no domestic elections ahead – his government is secured till 2026. What did Ukraine do to him to deserve such hostility?
In search of an answer, Estonians often look for historical or ideological reasons. Is Orbán gaining popularity for bashing Ukraine? Do the Hungarians hate Ukrainians for some reason? Or do they like Russians, despite all the Soviet past and 1956? Is Orbán maybe hoping to snatch the historic Hungarian territory of Zakarpattia?
In all honesty, the Hungarian prime minister is hardly motivated by any of these things. He barely cares about Ukraine. No, what Orbán likes is playing strategy. His main purpose is to outsmart everyone, and based on his behavior, this is what he’s trying to do right now as well.
What we know from leaked conversations and public statements is that he sees the West as too weak to maintain its dominant position in the world. Therefore he’s been looking for new alliances in the East and the global South. This, i.e. seeking out economic and diplomatic relations with post-Soviet and third-world countries, is not a new policy: it’s been going on for more than 10 years, called the «Eastern Opening policy» – and apparently, by far the most successful he has been with Russia and China. As a result, Hungarian economy is now interwoven with Russian and Chinese money – and influence – on all levels.
Starting a war, however, usually crosses a moral threshold. But not in Hungary. Russia’s attack on Ukraine threw Orbán off for a brief moment (partly because he foolishly thought he could prevent it), but since then, he has doubled down on the Russian side, and is getting more and more confident. His ever-growing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is nothing more than putting his bet on the winning horse by his calculations.
Orbán is not stupid, of course, but he’s not bothered about breaking down democracy, because he doesn’t believe in it in the first place.
Such cynicism is hard to stomach for most Estonians. Does he not know what Russia is? Does he really want the oppression, violence, scarcity, the ever-present lies and sheer stupidity of a totalitarian system? Or does he not know Putin – that he betrays his allies and never keeps his promises? Is he stupid or something?
Orbán is not stupid, of course, but he’s not bothered about breaking down democracy, because he doesn’t believe in it in the first place. He finds its structure inefficient and its ideas hollow. It’s easy to see from the kind of people whose company he prefers. What do you think they’re talking about? Orbán believes in great visionaries achieving great things, and he’s here to prove it. And when Putin lies to him or anyone else, he is not particularly bothered, because great visionaries don’t play by the rules.
From that angle, the war in Ukraine is just a geopolitical conflict that happens when power systems change. He told us they would change, that’s why he’s been flirting with the East since 2010.
I want to make it very clear that Orbán does not want to get out of the EU, nor does the EU want to really kick Hungary out. It’s economically unreasonable, and administratively nearly impossible. There’s no «kick-out protocol» in existence. And despite his fierce rhetoric, Orbán can be quite cooperative and reasonable with his EU counterparts if needed, because obviously he wants and needs the money and benefits of being in the Union, to support his regime. He wants to have his cake and eat it, too, for as long as possible.
I also urge everyone not to mix Trump’s motivations with Orbán’s. Trump is erratic, self-obsessed and easily influenced, especially by the dictators he looks up to. His main interest is himself and his family. Viktor Orbán, on the other hand, is a long-term strategist, who wants to be one step ahead of everyone. At the end of it all, he wants to deliver the last laugh, especially in the face of his Western colleagues, whom he thinks so little of – unlike his Eastern friend.
His calculations are often right. Will he be wrong this time?