JAANUS PIIRSALU ⟩ A potent new weapon: blocking Russian oil and cargo in the Baltic Sea

The Russian ship Mikhail Dudin in North-France. This ship visits also Russian ports of Baltic Sea. Photo: Michel Spingler / AP

• Due to a threat of terrorism, Russians should be banned from entering and exiting the Baltic Sea.
• What if a 5000-ton ship filled with explosives blows itself up in the Kiel Canal?
• With a view to limiting Russia's trade in the Baltic Sea, the environmental safety can be considered

Russia has three major ports along the Gulf of Finland, crucial to its economy.

Blocking Russian cargo, including oil transport, in the Baltic Sea would strike a severe blow to the aggressor's economy. Why is this not being done, given that the Baltic Sea has essentially become a NATO inland sea?

The implementation of European Union sanctions lately resembles chopping off a dog's tail piece by piece. Increasingly, there are sanctions that in no way impact the capabilities of the Russian army. Meanwhile, EU countries do not close vital trade channels that fund Russia's war machine, channels they fully control, an Estonian sailor said. Let's simply call him the Captain.

«I'm sure they'll start saying how complicated it is, but but I believe it's not about complexity — it's about whether there's a genuine desire to end the war,» the Captain said.

Talking about ending the war might be an exaggeration, but the Captain's words carry a significant degree of truth. Given his extensive experience with cargo shipping in our region, his perspective is invaluable. The Captain works on a cargo ship that frequently sails in the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland.

Effectively, the consensus of just three nations – Denmark, Sweden, and Germany – is required to halt the maritime flow of goods to Russia through the Baltic Sea. This is because the critical maritime passages, the Kattegat and the Kiel Canal, fall within their borders.

Three major ports

Russia has three major ports along the Gulf of Finland, extremely important for its economy.

First is the Ust-Luga port near the Estonian border, which in 2022 was Russia's second-largest port by cargo turnover and by far the largest in our region. The port handled 124 million tons of cargo. To put this into perspective, that is roughly six times more than the total cargo turnover of all Estonian ports.

Second is the Primorsk port near the Finnish border, Russia's largest oil port in our region. In Russia's first year of war, 57 million tons of crude oil and oil products were exported through this port, the same amount as before the war. Current sanctions have not affected Russia's oil exports through this port.

Third is the St. Petersburg commercial port, Russia's largest container port in our region.

Additionally, Russia has a few smaller cargo ports along the Gulf of Finland, such as Vysotsk and Vyborg, and ports in the Baltic Sea within the Kaliningrad Oblast. The latter currently play no role in Russia's economy, as it is not possible to transport goods from that enclave to Russia now.

Blocking entry to the Baltic Sea is theoretically simple

Vessels seeking entry to the Baltic Sea are limited to two main routes: the Kiel Canal and the Kattegat, which funnel into the straits of the Great Belt, Little Belt, and the Sound. These passages are collectively referred to as the Danish straits. (It is worth noting that the name «Denmark Strait» is used to describe the waterway between Greenland and Iceland.)

One might assume that it essentially takes the will of three countries for no goods to reach Russia via the Baltic Sea. This is because the critical maritime passages, the Kattegat and the Kiel Canal, fall within their borders.

Unfortunately, it is not that simple. Similarly to the Gulf of Finland, economic zone corridors have been established in the Danish straits. The Copenhagen Convention of 1857, established to eliminate Denmark's exclusive control over maritime traffic to and from the Baltic Sea, ensures the right of free passage for all vessels through the Great Belt, Little Belt, and the Sound, Alexander Lott, a researcher at the Norwegian Center for the Law of the Sea and at the University of Tartu, said.

International maritime law does not regulate passage through the Kiel Canal. The passage regimes of major canals (including the Suez and Panama Canals, in addition to Kiel) are determined by private agreements. Here, the movement of ships heading to Russia could be restricted, but it would be pointless if ships could still freely pass through the Kattegat.

The Captain posits that with sufficient political resolve, one simple and well-known tactic to even Russia itself could be used to stop ships heading to Russia through the Kattegat – invoking the threat of terrorism.

Oil production in Tatarstan, Russia. Photo: Sergei Karpukhin

Due to a threat of terrorism, entry and exit to the Baltic Sea should be banned at least in two instances. Firstly, for ships that have visited Russian ports, for example, within the last four months. Secondly, for ships whose officer crew (captain, chief mate, second mate, chief engineer, second engineer, and so on) are Russian citizens.

In Russia, the majority of civilian ship captains are all in the ranks of reserve officers and have therefore sworn an oath to the Russian state. This fact alone can be considered a security threat.

«Many Russian captains are former naval officers. They are Russian reservists, well-trained,» the Captain said.

«I don't understand the reasoning of the European Union countries when they grant visas to these individuals, permitting them to navigate their vessels into our canals and ports. The EU ought to cease visa issuance to all Russian sailors.»

Ships might carry explosives

A reason for limiting access to Russian ports could be the uncertainty regarding the nature of cargo departing from these ports.

«What if a 5000-ton ship is full of explosives and blows itself up in the Kiel Canal?» the Captain speculated. «How long would it take to restore ship traffic in the canal? By that time, it would be too late for deliberation. Or what if a cargo ship full of explosives blows up near the oil terminals at the entrance to the Port of Rotterdam? Europe's largest port would be out of operation for months. In the Kiel Canal, it would be even worse: restoration could take a couple of years, if not more.»

The threat of terrorism should be taken very seriously in our region, considering the incidents that have already occurred during the war. I am referring to the Nord Stream gas pipelines having been blown up in the Baltic Sea in 2022 and the damaging of the Estonia-Finland gas pipeline, Balticconnector, in the Gulf of Finland last fall.

Additionally, there have been several cases of undersea cables being damaged. The Balticconnector was damaged by the Hong Kong-registered vessel Newnew Polar Bear. What was the nationality of the ship's captain, and where was the ship traveling from and to? According to Postimees, the captain is a Russian citizen, and the ship was on its way from Kaliningrad to Saint Petersburg.

The maritime law expert, Alexander Lott, recommends that leveraging environmental safety concerns is a viable strategy for restricting Russian trade in the Baltic Sea.

The logic stems from the fact that due to oil sanctions, Russia has brought in a so-called «shadow fleet», which poses a real and serious threat to the marine environment. This "shadow fleet" consists of old oil tankers purchased by Russia, which were supposed to be scrapped within a few years or had already been scrapped. Their technical condition is poor, many of the shadow fleet's tankers have single hulls, which should no longer be sailing the world's oceans. Moreover, this shadow fleet is essentially uninsured.

Lott said that this means that should an accident occur in the Gulf of Finland involving said old vessels from Russia's shadow fleet resulting in an oil spill, coastal states like Estonia would likely have to bear the full damage on their own without being able to rely on insurance.

«These ships pose a direct threat to us, Denmark, and other Baltic Sea coastal states through which all this (Russian) transit flows,» Lott stated.

The shadow fleet should not be allowed into the Baltic Sea.

Alexander Lott, maritime law expert. Researcher at the Norwegian Center for the Law of the Sea at the University of Tromsø. Photo: Office of the President of the Republic

The Captain's personal experience

There are thus options for restricting Russian cargo transport in the Baltic Sea, which is now largely a sea of NATO and the European Union.

An even more significant impact on restricting sea cargo transport to Russia would be achieved if the European Union altogether banned entry to its ports for ships that had visited Russian ports within a certain period (for example, four months; however, even a month-long restriction would strike a blow) or had participated in ship-to-ship operations, where another vessel is involved in transporting goods to or from Russia. This activity can often be seen in the Gulf of Finland as well.

Such decisions would end all cargo transport to Russian ports in the Gulf of Finland, putting Russia in a significant predicament, the Captain said.

The Captain worked on a ship that carried goods to St. Petersburg at the beginning of last year. Among other things, the Captain witnessed how Russia made life hell for sailors with Ukrainian passports working on ships that entered Russian ports.

Naturally, the critical factor is the political resolve to shut the Baltic Sea and European Union ports to vessels ferrying goods to Russia. Where there is a will, politicians have never struggled to find a rationale.

As things stand, the foreign shipping companies transporting goods to Russia have stopped hiring Ukrainian seafarers. Why should the European Union not respond by similarly making life difficult for seamen with Russian passports who enter our ports with their ships?

This latter measure could be easily implemented, for example, through pilot companies, which are typically state-owned entities in Baltic Sea ports. «Estonia could set an example here; it could be done within one to two weeks. The supervisory board of Estonian Pilot could issue a directive, and no ship with a Russian captain, regardless of its flag, could enter Estonian ports anymore,» the Captain suggested. Similarly, Danish pilots could refuse to serve ships with Russian passport-holding captains. Given Russia's designation as an aggressor state, a strong legal basis exists for such measures.

Naturally, the critical factor is the political resolve to shut the Baltic Sea and European Union ports to vessels ferrying goods to Russia. Where there is a will, politicians have never struggled to find a rationale. The issue is that many countries, including some Baltic Sea states, still perceive this as a Russian-Ukrainian war, and believe any bold step would lead to an escalation by Russia.

All terrestrial border crossings from Europe to Russia and Belarus ought to be closed, implementing a prohibition on all crossings.

Baltic Sea countries, unite!

Chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Riigikogu Marko Mihkelson deems a discussion of trade restrictions with Russia necessary. His view is that trade restrictions, including those via the Baltic Sea with Russia, should serve a larger strategic goal and be implemented alongside other very significant decisions, such as removing any restrictions on Ukraine for conducting tactical operations.

«It's hard to imagine right now that Germany, Denmark, or Sweden would be ready to implement what (Postimees) described, even less so without a joint decision from the European Union,» Mihkelson noted. To block the transportation of goods to Russia via the Baltic Sea, a European Union decision is not necessary, however. Decisions by the Baltic Sea countries would suffice. It would be especially beneficial if the Netherlands and Belgium, with their large North Sea ports, also joined the ban.

All land border crossing points from Europe to Russia and Belarus should also be closed. A ban for all crossers, except for special cases. Finland's example could be followed by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Norway.

European Union countries have already seemingly restricted maritime cargo transport to Russia, but Russians only laugh at these restrictions. For example, the Netherlands has banned the direct maritime transport of goods to Russia. However, this decision has no impact. According to the Captain, shipping companies obfuscate the destination port. Instead of St. Petersburg, the cargo's destination might be marked as Tallinn, and upon reaching Tallinn, the final destination is changed to St. Petersburg. There is also manipulation with cargo papers. A ban on entering the Baltic Sea would put an end to such games.