Intelligence: Russia to increase military personnel near Estonian border in near future

The personnel strength of Russian land forces and airborne troops in the Estonian direction is to grow significantly in the next few years. Photo: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Scanpix.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service notes in its annual report published on Tuesday that Russia aims to dominate militarily in the Baltic Sea region, and that the personnel strength of Russian land forces and airborne troops in the Estonian direction is to grow significantly in the next few years.

At the end of 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to overhaul the organizational structure of the Russian Armed Forces, reform the military command, establish additional units and formations in almost all branches, and increase the personnel strength to 1.5 million service members. These ambitious reforms are planned to be implemented over three to four years and are being presented as a response to NATO's expansion.

The objectives of Russia's military reform reflect the leadership's vision of the resources required for the conflict with Ukraine and a confrontation with the West.

«The Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade. For Estonia, Russia's military reform entails a significant increase in Russian forces near the Estonian border in the coming years,» the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said.

The growth of Russian military capabilities in Estonia’s vicinity in the Leningrad and Pskov Oblasts primarily results from the potential transformation of existing units into divisions.

According to one possible scenario, the personnel strength of Russian land forces and airborne troops in the Estonian direction may nearly double from approximately 19,000 before Feb. 24, 2022. The extent to which these units will achieve combat readiness depends on Russia's ability to recruit, train and retain contracted service members," the annual report reads.

The second priority region is the Finnish direction, where Russia's military posture was minimal until Finland's recent accession to NATO.

«Russia plans to create the 44th Army Corps, likely based in Petrozavodsk, to address this. This formation will probably be built around at least two or three maneuver units with around a dozen fire support and combat support units,» the foreign intelligence service said.

The success and timeline of Russia's military reform will be largely determined by the course of the war in Ukraine. If Russia manages to implement the reform, NATO could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade. This army is likely to be technologically inferior to NATO allies' defense forces in most areas, except for electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities.

«However, its military potential would be significant, owing to its size, firepower, including artillery and numerous inexpensive combat drones, combat experience and reserves,» the intelligence service said.

«Defending against a possible conventional attack from such an army would require allied defense forces and defense industries to be significantly more prepared, capable and better-stocked with ammunition and materiel than they currently are. In summary, Russia's plan to increase its military forces is ambitious, especially considering the short timeline and Russia's economic and demographic situation. However, it is also a source of threat for Estonia and NATO, contributing to Russia's aggressive posture, military potential and growing militarization reinforcing Russia’s apparent path of a long-term confrontation with the West,» the report said.