Berlin fears that high technology will fall into Moscow's hands. Russia has already stolen it.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, right, sits on a Leopard 2 tank at the Bundeswehr tank battalion 203 at the Field Marshal Rommel Barracks in Augustdorf, Germany, Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. Photo: Martin Meissner

• Russia has historically been extremely strong in industrial espionage
• A lot of western technology is stolen
• Moscow's ability to copy stolen high technology is low

If weapon systems are given to Ukraine, there is a fear that they will fall into the hands of Russia. This is an understandable threat, but overestimated and damages the West's ability to actually test the technology on the battlefield. Besides, Russia has most likely already stolen most of the technology, writes Erkki Koort, security expert of Postimees and the Estonian Academy Security Sciences.

War is always the only place where war machines and ammunition are truly tested. Of course, weapons testing on the range is also quite well developed today, but it is still a laboratory. Both equipment and maintenance are close by, and neither the crew nor the equipment is under stress. Real effectiveness can only be understood by a real war theatre. Several weapon systems delivered to Ukraine have also demonstrated this. One of the brightest examples has been Germany's PzH 2000 self-propelled gun, considered the best in the world, which had problems in combat contact that otherwise would not have come to light.

Fear of delivery

War allows for experimentation and development. However, the West is often afraid of supplying newer weapons, and there are certain reasons for this. First, before the start of the full-scale invasion of Russia, it was feared that all the equipment would fall into the hands of the Russian army in the event of an attack. Warning examples had just been obtained from Afghanistan, where when the Taliban came into the power, it also got a large part of the equipment. Iraq was also a bad example, where despite giving Abrams tanks to the Baghdad government, they fell into the hands of Islamic State fighters with light weapons. The US Air Force was forced to destroy much of the equipment there.

In the example of both Iraq and Afghanistan, good heavy military equipment did not help to hold the front. One of the reasons for this was the internal weakness and corruption of the states. The structures ensuring internal security were weak and officials could be bought. This was also feared in the case of Ukraine. Although the conditions in Estonia are completely incomparably different, we must not forget that military defense is still only one part of national defense.

Fears were not true in the case of Ukraine, and soon more weapons were given cautiously. Here another fear emerged. Namely, it was feared that the Russians would start copying Western technology and would be able to develop more capable weapons. In this case, Ukraine would suffer, but in the event of a potential conflict, it would also be a negative development for NATO.

The fear that Russia will copy the technology has appeared both in the case of armored vehicles and, for example, long-range missiles. Ukraine has repeatedly asked Germany for Taurus cruise missiles but has always received a negative answer. Taurus was developed in the 2000s in cooperation between Germany and Sweden. In terms of size and warhead power, it is comparable to missiles already delivered to Ukraine.

The Taurus was intended to repel a possible Russian attack, and the missile was supposed to destroy ammunition depots, command posts, troop concentration points and other high-value targets. The Russian-held enclave of Königsberg has been named as one of the areas the Taurus was designed to target. However, the Germans do not want to give missiles designed to repel Russia to Ukraine. One reason is that if missile parts are not completely destroyed, the Russians will gain insight into its construction and be able to copy it. At this point, however, Berlin's fears are certainly unfounded. Firstly, the Russians have certainly already stolen the Taurus technology in twenty years, and secondly, Russia's ability to produce high-tech equipment cannot be overestimated.

The ability to steal, but not produce

A good example is the Iranian drones used by Russia against Ukraine, in Russian version called Geran 2. Moscow obtained them from Tehran and started production only with the help of Iranian engineers. Considered to be the second army in the world, the force could not produce a simple gadget with the military industry. Iran, which has been under sanctions since 1979, including aviation sanctions, was able to do this. There are certainly things that Russia can catch up to, and of course we should not underestimate their capabilities. In fact, Russia is good in two categories - stealing and copying. This is the case with weapons, but also with the tactics used in battles, but they still have limits.

Today, Russia has started parallel imports and is able to acquire technology for its war machine. However, it's more difficult to start large-scale development when you struggle to produce simple things. At the same time, it is also clear that there is some form of continuous development in the military industry there.

Russia has stolen a great deal of technology for new weapon systems over the years as part of its intelligence activities. Apparently, Taurus' too. Even if they had no plans to produce one, it was undoubtedly necessary to understand the capabilities of the weapon system to plan for force protection.

There is no reason to doubt that there are many Russian spies in Germany. Recently, a man who worked for the BND, the German intelligence agency, was caught selling information about weapons sent to Ukraine. For that, he earned at least $450,000, according to the indictment. The scheme was super simple. The BND documents were printed out and his accomplice took pictures of them with a smartphone, which he handed over to the FSB security service while traveling to Moscow. Each country is thinking of replacing fallen spies to ensure the necessary information about the activities of the other side.

Russia has historically been very strong in industrial espionage. After the Cold War, some documents came to the public, showing which technology the KGB or GRU had stolen from the West. These reports even calculated how much the USSR saved on development costs by stealing technology. Has it changed the circumstances? No, T-55 tanks, not T-14, still roll onto the battlefield.