Latest ratings: Estonia 200`s fall stops, Reform loses voters

Kaja Kallas and Lauri Hussar. Photo: Tairo Lutter

The latest ratings of Estonia`s political parties compiled by Norstat indicate that the long decline of Estonia 200 has come to a halt, while the Reform Party, the traditional number one, lost supporters.

According to the latest results of the weekly survey carried out by pollster Norstat Eesti for the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues, the Reform Party, the largest force in the three-party coalition government, is supported by 27.2 percent, opposition Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE) by 22 percent and opposition Center Party by 18.2 percent of citizens eligible to vote.

Support for Reform fell by 1.1 percentage points over the week. The rating of EKRE has declined by 1.5 percentage points in three weeks, and support for the national conservatives is now 3.4 percentage points lower than at the end of May. Support for Center has risen 2.6 percentage points in the last four weeks.

The top three are followed by junior coalition partner Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 10 percent, opposition Isamaa with 9.9 percent and Estonia 200 with 7.8 percent. SDE and Isamaa, which swapped places in the rankings, are running neck and neck. Estonia 200`s nearly four-month decline has come to a halt.

The three parties of the government coalition, Reform, Estonia 200 and SDE, are supported by altogether 45 percent of voters and those of the opposition by 50.1 percent.

Martin Molder, a researcher at the University of Tartu, described the fall of Estonia 200 having stopped at least for now as a significant change compared with previous weeks.

Martin Molder, a researcher at the University of Tartu. Photo: Kermo Benrot

«Their rating had been moving steadily downwards since the beginning of April, reflecting voter disillusionment with the new parliamentary and governing party. Weekly ratings showed a possible improvement in the position of Estonia 200 already last week, and their last two weekly ratings have been higher than in the weeks before,» Molder said.

Where support for Estonia 200 has generally been higher among younger voters, the current improvement in their position can be largely ascribed to increased support among older voters, among whom the party`s rating has generally been very low.

As regards the rest of the parties, there's not much in terms of new trends.

«The ratings of Isamaa and the Social Democrats have leveled out. The Center Party has seen its support grow in both relative and absolute terms over the past month. They are back to the level in absolute terms of supporters where they were in mid-February this year, after almost five months of steady recovery in absolute terms,» the researcher said.

He added that while there have been many short-term fluctuations in the ratings of EKRE and the Reform Party, the top two parties have been moving in different directions for the past couple of months.

«EKRE`s trend has been rather downwards and that of the Reform Party rather upwards, and neither has succeeded in breaking these trends decisively,» Molder noted.