ISS: Sanctions have impeded Russia in realizing its influence objectives

Russian embassy in Tallinn. Photo: Konstantin Sednev

The Internal Security Service (ISS) writes in its latest annual review that international sanctions, deportations of extremist Russian citizens from Estonia and entry bans have impeded Russia in realizing its political influence objectives, furthermore, several individuals and associations have also decided to withdraw from active propaganda efforts.

However, according to the ISS, this does not signal a change of heart; instead, it suggests that pro-Russian activists are not satisfied with the reduced resources now that attention has turned to Ukraine. The representatives of Russian interests in Estonia have a direct, and materially motivated, interest in restoring their former network and funding scheme. In order to speed up this process, they are spreading allegations of mass discrimination against Russian-speaking minorities, especially in the Baltics.

«Although official Russian rhetoric has called on Russian-speaking residents in other countries to flee discrimination and come to live and work in Russia, this has been without any real result. Allegedly, Russia could not provide adequate living conditions or even find the necessary resources to sufficiently accommodate the Russian citizens who were deported from Estonia in 2022 for actively promoting Russian influence activities. This is another example of how even people working hard to further the Russian cause are merely seen as pawns to advance the state»s interests,» the ISS writes.

«Due to their family ties, many Estonian residents, specifically those living in Ida-Virumaa, are aware of the reality of life in Russia compared to Estonia. This accounts for the lack of interest in settling in Russia, even among those that are culturally or ideologically closely affiliated with it,» the ISS adds.

According to the ISS, after a lull during the COVID-19 pandemic, events aimed at maintaining the Russian sphere of influence resumed in 2021 and 2022, pointing to a continued desire to feed into the nostalgia for the scale and influence of the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire. The book «Our Address: the Soviet Union», presented at a 2022 Moscow conference for Russian activists abroad, is just one illustration of this desire.

«Russias influence operations in the coming years will likely focus on fracturing the Western sanctions policy by using »soft values« in the field of culture, sport and education, or other methods, to mitigate the opposition to Russia in countries domestic and foreign policies,» the ISS writes in the annual review.

«In 2022, public attention in Estonia briefly turned to a group posting Russian-language messages that mainly relied on official Russian narratives and spoke of peace and neutrality in a tone that would at times venture off into hostility. People linked to the group blamed Western (including NATO and European Union) and Ukrainian leaders for the aggression launched by Russia and repeatedly accused Ukrainian war refugees in Estonia of betraying their homeland and bringing the fear of war to Europe. The group has not found a wider audience,» the ISS adds.

The ISS notes that, for years, Russia has sought to advance its interests through various networks of influence. Three key areas stand out: nationality/culture, religion and ideology. The activities in each area are amplified by harnessing the information space and economic networks.

«Nationality-based networks appear in the guise of the 'Russian compatriots abroad policy'. Networks of coordination councils are set up. Along with ethnic Russians and Russian culture, other peoples of the former Soviet Union are also engaged. Religion-based influence activities center around the Russian Orthodox Church, which formulates expedient religious justifications for the political and military choices of the Russian leadership,» it is said in the annual review.

According to the ISS, in the case of ideology, the focus is mainly on the combination of two factors: anti-fascism and traditionalism. Emphasizing anti-fascism is a way to lean into the shared experience of fighting against Nazi Germany. These arguments are also used in Russia»s influence operations in Europe, which appeal to historical memory and the events of World War II.

«With traditionalism, Russia»s ambition is to emerge as a champion of traditional values by construing Western societies as morally degenerate and futureless formations without an identity, history or culture, where satanism, homosexuality and anarchy run rampant, and the ability to reproduce intelligent elites has been lost. Russia, by contrast, is envisioned as upholding traditional values, placing importance on family and education and remaining true to its historical uniqueness, emphasizing the right to choose its own path and not to submit to the West, which would rather see Russia turned into a colony that provides mineral resources,» it is said in the annual review.

«Moscows relationship with members of the networks built around nationality, religion and anti-fascist ideology is that of a patron and its clients. However, when it comes to traditionalism, Moscow is looking for various opportunities to coalesce with extreme conservatives in the West. In this area, Russia is more successful in circles that buy into various conspiracy theories, such as the Great Reset and the Great Replacement. Even though Russia has not been able to establish itself as a champion for traditionalists, it still manages to utilize this network to communicate its messages,» the ISS adds.