Continuing with the Reform and Center parties’ government would require that either Kaja Kallas or Jüri Ratas give up something important. Such a retreat is increasingly difficult to imagine.
Extraordinary election is unlikely
The Constitution and the Riigikogu election act provide three options for holding extraordinary election. The election can be declared by the President; in two cases it is his obligation while in one case he is free to choose whether to do it.
First, if the Riigikogu submits a bill to a referendum and it does not find the support of the people, the President must declare extraordinary election. This can be ruled out because no such move is currently expected.
The second option would mean that the candidate for the head of government proposed by the president will not be able to form the government. If the prime minister-designate fails, the president can choose the next person. If that one also fails, then it is the turn of the Riigikogu to nominate a candidate. If that person also fails to form the government, the president will declare extraordinary election. If Kaja Kallas’ government were to fall now, then it could theoretically happen, but it would require quite a few moves and failed attempts to form the government.
Thirdly, if the Riigikogu votes no confidence in the government or the prime minister, the president may declare extraordinary election. Note the word “may”. If in other cases the president is obliged to call extraordinary election, then in this case it is a question of the president's choice. Theoretically, the early election could suit the Reform Party (their rating is high) but not the other parties. In the end, it would still depend on the decision of Alar Karis, and Karis probably does not want to choose the extraordinary election.