ICDS chief: Ukraine has not counted on the threat from the north

Russian troops on their way to drills in Belarus. Photo: Valgevene kaitseministeerium/AFP/Scanpix

As Ukraine’s defense plans are eastbound, Kiev has not considered the possibility of a serious threat from the north, with a joint Russian-Belarusian training exercise unfolding there at present, Chief Executive of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) Dmitri Teperik tells Postimees in an interview. Teperik is helping to reinforce Ukraine’s social resilience as part of the “Resilient Ukraine” program.

You were in Kharkiv yesterday and are in Sumy, near the Russian border today. How are things looking, how is the war affecting people’s everyday lives?

Talking about ordinary people in the streets and supermarkets, nothing really shows. People do not seem to be in a hurry when going about their business. But it is a deceptive image, of course. The local media is preoccupied with a possible Russian invasion.

Local journalists who interviewed me in Kharkiv and reporters and experts I will be meeting in Sumy today know that it is a burning issue. People in the street are often asked what they would do in case of a military invasion. Whether they are prepared etc. There is tension in the air, while it does not show in everyday behavior. We are all human, and I believe that Ukrainians are concerned if not frightened.

The Americans have set about evacuating their embassy in Kiev, even though EU High Representative Josep Borrell has tried to soften the message by suggesting the Americans are not evacuating and are simply allowing people to leave. Have the Americans given up on diplomacy and are they preparing for the worst?

No, I don’t think so. While the move raised some questions, it constitutes perfectly procedural conduct. Semi-automatic processes are launched when the threat level rises – in this case, diplomats and their family members are given the chance to leave the country. The U.S. embassy will continue with reduced staff, while the Americans have pledged their continued support for Ukraine in both words and actions.

Because the EU has decided to stay put, could the Americans’ partial exodus negatively impact the West’s united front?

I do not believe so. Both the Ukrainians and Estonians are used to trusting actions over words. And they show the West’s strong dedication to Ukraine – arms shipments and other kinds of support, down to assurances that some Western countries, Canada or the UK, for example, are willing to station units in Ukraine.

I believe certainty is manufactured by actions, also in Estonia. The fact diplomacy fell short this time makes for a topic that could be analyzed in hindsight, in terms of why talks with Russia were not successful. We can see that Russia never indented for them to be constructive. All of its demands were absurd and unacceptable for NATO and the West. We can say that diplomacy fell short because Russia never gave it a chance.

Is it possible Russia aimed for the maximum? That they attempted to demand everything to be able to walk away with something?

It’s possible, while it is also possible that they went into the talks knowing they would fall through. It might have been a diversion to distract the West and demonstrate seeming diplomatic efforts mainly to the domestic audience.

The talks have not sparked any sort of trust in Russia. I think it might have been a somewhat less than brilliant diversion on the one hand and an attempt to convince the domestic audience that it is the West that is reluctant to negotiate or entertain Russia’s demands on the other.

There are joint Russia-Belarus military drills in Belarus today. The second, more active phase of the exercise is planned for February 10-20. Could it pose a threat to Ukraine?

A very serious one at that. Ukraine’s northern border is mainly with Belarus. The region has poorer infrastructure – roads and railroads. The landscape is marshy and covered in woods. But even so, Ukrainian defense plans have not counted on a serious threat from the north.

Following the occupation of Crimea and war breaking out in eastern Ukraine, the focus of defense planning has been on the Russian border and the area of the front line. Attention has also been paid in the south where lies occupied Crimea. That an offensive might also come from the north, from Belarus weakens Ukraine’s position. Considering that Russia moved strike aircraft and missiles to Belarus, they might be planning an aerial attack. It would be a serious ordeal for Ukraine the air and missile defense capacity of which is modest to say the least. It is a very serious gap in their defenses.

What to think of Germany’s decision not to supply arms to Ukraine?

It is highly regrettable. I think it will have far-reaching consequences for German-Ukrainian relations and in terms of Germany’s negotiating position relative its allies – NATO and the EU.

Germany’s image has taken a hit in the eyes of Western allies. They did not really manage to explain their decision [not to supply Ukraine with weapons], it raised a lot of questions and demonstrated political decision-makers’ and indeed the entire political elite’s dependence on what Russia thinks. The move will have far-reaching consequences for diplomacy, also in NATO and the EU.

However, it needs to be said that it does not take away from aid Germany is giving to Ukraine. Germany supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, at least in words, and invests heavily in Ukraine. It is a complicated situation.

Germany has a fairly good relationship with Russia. Is it something that might aid Berlin’s diplomatic efforts?

They do not really get along. They believe they are an equal partner for Russia, which they are not as the latter considers Germany a part of the West that it feels is an adversary. Rather, they see Germany as a pragmatic business partner heavily dependent on Russia.

I do not believe German diplomacy can yield any kind of solution.

Diplomatically speaking, we could keep an eye on what Turkey says about Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that they will support Ukraine should Russia attack, that Turkey would not remain neutral and would side with Ukraine. It is a strong signal as Putin sees Erdogan as a difficult but more or less equal partner with whom it pays to talk. Turkey’s position on Ukraine has been noteworthy in this process.