I do not want to display hindsight but all signs pointed at it. The army is willing to fight the Taliban only if the Americans and other allies support them. But once the Afghan forces are facing the Taliban without support they will lay down their arms. Why? Because they know that they will eventually lose. Opposition to the Taliban may mean death. They take prisoner only those who surrender. The others will probably be killed.
In the rural areas where most of the population lives outside larger cities, the people are not too Western-minded either. The Taliban rule is acceptable to them.
Some developments have taken place in that country. Many women have received education which was unthinkable before. Under the Taliban rule approximately 10-12 percent of women and roughly half of men were literate. Women, who received education, worked in ministries, even the police and the armed forces. But would the Taliban tolerate that? These women will be sent back to kitchen.
How can one cooperate with the Taliban if their worlds are so different? Would the Taliban sit down with Afghan women and negotiate with them? Impossible! It just cannot be imagined.
What should we now be afraid of?
The hybrid threat I can see coming from the direction of Afghanistan will reach us as well. There will be a new flow of refugees. What we saw with the Iraqi at the Lithuanian and Latvian borders can be only a prelude, an introduction. Once the wanes of refugees will move through Central Asia, Russia and Belarus, it will become the reality. Possibly narcotics as well. If Russia will use that, it will become a serious problem. The Russians can well understand the value of it as a weapon. They have already used it to exert pressure on Europe.
We saw the effect of migration back in 2015–2016. As soon as the Russians began to bomb cities in Syria, millions of refugees spilled over the borders. There are four million still in Turkey and they come to Europe. Every time the Russians undertook there something, a new wave of refugees followed.
Postimees has been closely following the experience of Omar the interpreter and we are very glad that he managed to reach the UK a few weeks ago together with his family. But he keeps assuring that he remains a friend of Estonia.
This is shameful. We, too, are now beginning to understand what is happening on the birders of the EU. The migration threat is now concerning us directly. It comes from this direction from the east rather than south as on 2015–2016. Angela Merkel said her famous words, offering asylum all newcomers. That cost her dearly politically. But after that there were Brexit, the election of Trump in the USA, the rise of populist parties in many countries.