Only the Võru county and the islands are all right

Yesterday’s data showed 430 new cases of infection, while last week’s Wednesday had 409. Photo: Mihkel Maripuu

The general indicators of the spreading of corona virus have flattened out, says Krista Fischer, a member of the Science Council and professor of mathematical statistics of Tartu University. However, when observing regions individually, infection is increasing.

Yesterday’s data showed 430 new cases of infection, while last week’s Wednesday had 409. “We are already observing that there are more infections. But otherwise it has remained much at the same level,” Fischer said. She added that it is not yet possible to state whether the current fluctuations are random or whether an increase is coming up after the flat stretch.

Professor of virology Irja Lutsar, the head of the Science Council, told Postimees that the level of infections has slightly declined as compared to last week and therefore we cannot claim with certainty that we have reached stability. “A large drop can occur from great height; once we reach lower levels, the drop cannot be that steep,” the professor explained.

Very high increase of infection cases has occurred in Valga county and the infection level in Viljandi has been steadily high in latest weeks. “East Viru county is also a cause for worrying as it has returned to the dark red zone according to the ECDC risk matrix and Pärnu county has also reported increase,” Fischer said.

Indicator swinging again between two colours

The scientist said that the situation is the best in Võru county where the decline has been quite significant – they are no longer at the red level but between the yellow and green ones. “We can say that it is all right in Võru county and on the islands; everywhere else in Estonia there are problems,” Fischer summed it up.

While Postimees wrote on May 5 that Estonia had reached the orange (or high) risk level, today’s figures again place us at the level between red and orange, the scientist said. “If the average number of deaths per day remains below five, we are in the orange zone; if it increases, we may return to the red zone,” she said.

An interesting increase can also be noticed as to the age groups. The largest growth of cases is observed in the age 20–24 and 15–19 years, but also among those over 85 years of age. Fischer said that the increased infection among teenagers could be expected, since the senior years have returned to schools and their opportunities of contact are greater.

“The increase among the 85+ is worrying since they should be mostly vaccinated,” she said. The infection among the 20–24-year-olds shows that the youths’ sense of threat is low, Fischer said. “Young people want to be together and how should we limit their meetings so that there would be two people rather than a dozen?”

The infection rate indicator has increased by today from 0.8 to 0.95. “It is approaching 1 very rapidly,” said Fischer. Mari-Anne Härma, Deputy Director General of the Health Board, said that approximately half of those infected have caught the virus at home and there are no signs of increased infections at workplaces. “Forty-two percent of those infected were infected at home, while 33 percent cannot say where they got the infection,” Härma said. “Now that the schools have been opened, the results will become clear only in two or three weeks.”

According to Härma, the Harju county and Tallinn and showing a declining trend, but larger hotspots at workplaces have been observed in the Southern region.

Compared with winter when Estonia’s infection rate was stable and then went up rapidly, the major difference according to Irja Lutsar is that the Health Board was then incapable of tracking down close contacts of those infected. “Everything depends on how well the hotspots can be localised,” Lutsar said.

Another COVID-19 Science Council member Andero Uusberg, behavioural scientist and psychologist, told Postimees that the decline of public perception of threat is measured with two indicators. One of them is the question: “How highly do I rate the likelihood of getting infected by someone unaware of it?” This indicator has dropped steeply in three weeks, Uusberg said.

Perception of hazard has steeply declined

According to the study released on May 1, only 33 percent of people considered the situation critical in the second half of April. This indicator was as low the latest in August 2020 when 37 percent of people considered the situation critical. As recently as in mid-March, 81 percent of respondents held that opinion.

The other indicator is a questionnaire concerning safety precautions, e.g. wearing face masks. “Again, it [the indicator] is declining,” Uusberg said. Compared with the end of March, staying home (from 53 percent to 45), avoiding gatherings (from 71 percent to 66) and avoiding close contacts with individuals showing evidence of illness (from 74 percent to 68) have all declined.

According to the expert, these two indicators can be considered the markets of the people’s perception of hazard or risks and it can be stated that it has begun to drop steeply. The drop of the perception of hazard is related to the steady decline of infection in Estonia over several weeks. However, the decline began from a very high level of infection and the current level seems low, although it is actually still rather high. “If we are descending from a mountain, we do not reach the foothills at once. This is where the hazard hides,” Uusberg said.

In Uusberg’s estimation, the “traffic lights” system of the white book could make the hazard perception and comparison easier, since the people need not constantly compare the present situation with last year’s one.