Professor Lutsar: We recommend putting all educational institutions on remote learning

Member of the government’s scientific advisory council, professor of virology Irja Lutsar. Photo: Remo Tõnismäe

Member of the government’s scientific advisory council, professor of virology Irja Lutsar told the “Otse Postimehest” webcast that Estonia needs to lower its COVID-19 reproduction rate (R) that requires restrictions to cover all social groups.

What were the scientific council’s recommendations to the government?

The council analyzed the situation and what could happen. The general recommendation was to bring down the reproduction rate from 1 or 1.15 currently. COVID-19 has reached all social groups and measures must therefore also be universal.

Member of the council, Professor Andres Merits finds that we need to take more radical measures right now, such as closing schools and entertainment establishments. Did you make corresponding proposals to the government?

Our proposal was to put schools everywhere on distance learning for a week following the February school holiday.

In all age groups?

Yes, all age groups, whereas after one week, the decision should be made on the level of communities based on the local situation. We could have one situation on the island of Kihnu and another in Narva.

Interesting. Minister of Health and Labor Tanel Kiik told ERR in an interview that the recommendations package suggested putting high schools and university students on remote learning, while we are hearing something else from you.

Yes, the council recommended putting all school levels on remote learning, including hobby education. To have children take a social break. The school holiday needs to be spent at home, not touring the country. People need to find things to do at home. There will probably be more snow and everyone can go tobogganing.

Does this suggest the council also recommended closing theaters, movie theaters, spas and other entrainment establishments for the duration of the school break?

No, I did not say that.

But do people follow your advice of staying home in a situation where there is entertainment to be found out there?

We should think about what to do with spas. A lot of families visited them during the previous school break and outbreaks have started there. Nothing has been decided at this time.

Keeping these places open sends people the signal that it is okay to visit them.

People need to think for themselves. You do not have to go somewhere just because the place is open. Most people are very responsible. The dilemma we have is whether we need to take away everyone’s freedom to do something because a small group of people cannot observe the rules.

Did the council recommend keeping enterainment open?

The recommendations differ based on what we are talking about, while I cannot go into more detail before the government makes its decision on Thursday.

Why this level of secrecy? Why couldn’t the council’s recommendations be made public to make it clear based on what the government makes decisions? In a situation where COVID-19 restrictions are based on the council’s analyses and expert recommendations, the latter should also be disclosed.

We can publish them on Thursday. It is not a problem. However, saying something now and then having the government make a different decision on Thursday would cause confusion. I am not in favor of keeping our recommendations classified, while they could be published at the same time as the government’s decisions.

Why haven’t they been made public then?

It is a good idea and one I will be taking with me. I would say we simply haven’t thought of it.

Do you promise your recommendations will be disclosed in full from now on?

Absolutely.

The government has said it will decide on Thursday. What are we waiting for if the situation is critical?

A bad decision is worse than no decision at all. The scientific advisory council does not consider the economic side of things. The government must calculate the costs. We cannot just shut everything down and then see. We need to analyze if only whether parents of small children can stay home with them if we close elementary schools.

Could the fact we are seeing more young people infected have to do with the much more contagious British strain reaching Estonia?

The British strain is present in Estonia. While half of these cases are brought in from abroad, these people are quickly identified and the chain broken there. We have not seen the British strain to be causing infection among young people, but these things are constantly monitored.

Professor Merits has said that Estonia will likely have over 1,000 daily cases by Independence Day at which point an emergency situation will not be far away. Was the new government’s first COVID-19 decision – to reopen theaters, movie theaters and entertainment establishments – made hurriedly?

I cannot say. Theaters, movie theaters and concerts where people sit down pose a relatively modest risk as people wear masks and do not move around. More so in the conditions of half capacity. We are concentrating on the coronavirus today, while there are other things. We have people who say they are fed up with restrictions, while there are relatively few measures today. What they are fed up with is the fear of restrictions.

Is it true that the scientific council advised against opening entertainment providers: spas, theaters and movie theaters back then?

It is not true. It was our recommendation.

But now we need to close them again?

Well, yes, we cannot keep everything open and maybe they should have stayed closed for longer.

Did the period of government change buy the virus time?

There were likely several factors at play. One major problem is that people are obviously not sticking to the rules. A person who posts photos of a family gathering on social media today is not thinking at all! They are not considering that it might be inappropriate at this time.

A lot of countries have very severe restrictions and the police in the streets, making sure people stay indoors – they can control the situation that way. I very much hope Estonians are smarter than that.

That said, the only way to change attitudes quickly is to impose major fines. Did the council propose tougher measures against close contacts who ignore the isolation obligation?

The council has said that it needs to be monitored and those who ignore the rules sanctioned. Again, the scientific council is not recommending the kind of measures taken in Singapore where a groom was thrown in jail for a month for spending nine hours with the bride. Perhaps we do not need to be that strict, while we need to do something about people who cannot be made to comply with rules voluntarily. There needs to be monitoring.

We have 508 total coronavirus deaths, while we know that 40 percent of close contacts do not give a hoot about restrictions. At the same time, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’ approach is to have fewer restrictions and to concentrate on people behaving responsibly. Should this approach be altered looking at recent figures?

Around 40 people die in Estonia every day. Eleven die of malignant tumors and other diseases. People died of the flu when we last had a major outbreak. Right now, we have no flu, no RS virus and no adenovirus – almost no other viral diseases. Losing a loved one is tragic, while Estonia has one of the lowest mortality rates. If we look at deaths per registered cases, our figure is the absolute lowest.

Are you of the mind that trying to curb infection with severe restrictions is somewhat of a hopeless struggle against nature?

Severe restrictions are in order when they are in order. But we cannot make it a goal to eliminate the virus from nature. It is unrealistic. It is also unrealistic to put an end to the virus in Estonia unless we are prepared to close borders completely, including to all goods transport.