Minister of Defense: Year to be dominated by the rise of China

Minister of Defense Jüri Luik. Photo: Madis Veltman

Minister of Defense Jüri Luik (Isamaa) says that isolating defense from political currents is one of the trump cards of national security in Estonia. The minister also says that the threat of NATO disbanding has disappeared and that the new year will mark the rise of China.

We can call this an end of the year interview if we think about the Year of the Rat. The latter will end on February 11 by which time the global arena will have witnessed events we know are coming but that haven’t happened yet. Let us see whether it will be a start of the year interview or one that marks the end of the Year of the Rat as we go.

We have a deal. This approach is also a fitting reminder of the rise of China globally.

And yet, we must admit there is not a panda in sight.

Exactly.

It is said everywhere that the Chinese are buying up businesses for which purpose the Chinese state is granting loans free of charge.

The rise of China will be among the major topics of the new year. There will be a new president in America and Joe Biden will have to find his own China approach. China-U.S. relations are very tense right now and it will undoubtedly reflect in USA-EU and definitely also in China-Europe relations. The first transatlantic matter of contention has already been created in the European Union’s free trade agreement with China. We will probably be hearing a lot about this triangle – EU, USA and China – this year.

What did the last year have in store for defense and security in Estonia?

Starting with the most difficult matters, everything to do with COVID-19 also concerned the Defense Forces. In two ways. Firstly, the Estonian Defense Forces did everything it could to help the rest of society. No one even had masks in March. The EDF emptied its warehouses as we were the only ones who had sufficient quantities of protective masks. We also dispatched a field hospital to Kuressaare and performed a number of other tasks – the Defense League helped guard the border.

On the other hand, international events were canceled as allied soldiers could not travel. That said, I am very glad many international exercises still took place. Estonia hosted some pretty unique exercises that matter a great deal from the point of view of national defense, such as U.S. Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and special ops training exercises in Tapa. The central polygon hosted the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) UK battle group’s exercise throughout the year. I am very glad that the Defense Forces and NATO collective defense maintained readiness during this difficult period.

There is a saying that armies are usually preparing for the last war…

That generals always prepare for the previous war, yes.

What I wanted to say is that the pandemic is like an exercise for a future war.

Of course, we need to be prepared for epidemics. Scientists say that such epidemics might become more common in the future. There are a lot of reasons from rainforests disappearing to climate warming and live animal trade. The risk is real and our defense systems needs to be prepared.

On the other hand, I would not like to overemphasize this aspect. Looking east, tanks, mechanized infantry and planes still pose a very real threat too. A country’s armed forces cannot concentrate solely on civilian crises and must stand ready to face the worst-case scenario of military aggression. It is our constitutional duty.

Some ask whether the threat is as big as it is made out to be. However, considering the Brits have a battalion of one thousand men here, that the French will be bringing over a company next year and that we have Germans policing our airspace – they would not be here if they did not believe the danger is real. We need to invest heavily in national defense, and considering we are in an economic crisis, we have done very well indeed.

I last interviewed you in May of 2016 when Donald Trump becoming president was a real possibility. President Trump’s term will end around the same time as the Year of the Metal Rat.

America will get a new president on January 20 when President-Elect Joe Biden will take office. It is paramount for Estonian foreign and defense policy to establish a brilliant working relationship with any U.S. administration – whether Democrat or Republican. We know a lot of people from the Trump administration, while we can already say that we will have many acquaintances in Biden’s, people who have close ties to Europe. I believe that stable cooperation with USA will continue. The country’s defense budget that the Congress recently passed is a good sign as it includes considerable arms support for Estonia.

Trump tried to veto the budget but failed.

Trump’s veto followed domestic policy considerations. The Congress went over the bill and passed it as a result of efforts by both parties. It matters a great deal to Estonia and the other Baltic countries.

As concerns defense cooperation, it has been very active in recent years. We can take the examples of U.S. exercises in Estonia already given. The Americans have also had their B-1 and B-52 strategic bombers here. These are very powerful weapons that USA does not lightly take abroad, especially in an air support role during exercises, which is what happened in Estonia. I believe it is quite a potent message.

Postimees published a piece by international analyst Lilia Shevtsova on December 7 titled “This Ruthless COVID-19 World” where she writes about Russia’s degeneration even as an adversary. She adds, however, “Russia will retain its capacity for self-realization – to meddle in the domestic affairs of other countries. If only for the purpose of destabilization.”

Lilia Shevtsova is undoubtedly among the sharpest and most liberal Russian analysts and oppositional thinkers. Her assessments always prove spot on.

Shevtsova points to an important topic. Weakness will not render Russia less dangerous. Stagnation does nothing to rule out sudden and rash decisions. Reactions are often meant to assure adversaries that one has not gotten soft. That we are still here and ready for action. I have often given the example of the Soviet Union’s attack on Afghanistan. In 1979, three years before the death of Brezhnev, the Soviet Union was utterly stagnant.

The Politburo – largely to demonstrate its preparedness to take action – made the decision to attack Afghanistan completely out of the blue.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul said before U.S. presidential elections that USA would be leaving NATO if Trump gets a second term. Biden said the same thing in July of last year. At the same time, Angela Merkel, who is perhaps the strongest leader in Europe, is about to leave office. There are no vacancies in nature and France, now talking very loudly about the need for independent European defense capacity, would surely like to step in. Luckily, NATO will not disband, while Europe still seems to be yearning for something new. How to characterize the situation?

I am convinced NATO will not break up. I cannot say whether McFaul with whom we served as ambassadors to Moscow at the same time would have been right about Trump. What we know is that Biden is very pro-NATO and transatlantic cooperation. He is sure to demonstrate his interest in European security in the future.

I believe that the more Europe-centered ideology of the French is not finding as much support today. Because many countries that were critical of Trump saw European defense cooperation as a kind of a life buoy. Today, when everyone is hoping that Biden taking office will strengthen the transatlantic framework, fears of the Americans opting out a dissipating.

The problem is less acute now. Estonia has not supported this kind of “Europe stands alone” policy as it causes confusion and misconceptions. Europe does not have the military resources to deter major countries like Russia. It is a mathematically provable fact. I am optimistic in terms of this matter being solved sensibly.

What will change in the world when Joe Biden takes office?

It is clear that the Biden administration will table a number of topics that are currently not on the agenda. One such example is arms control. Biden’s team includes a lot of people who have faith in the constructive power of arms control. An attempt will be made to restore dialogue with Russia, at least initially. It is not something Estonia deals with on a daily basis, while these processes taking off will no doubt affect us. We need to be active and protect our interests.

The other topic that matters to Estonia is that while the UK has left the EU, we should definitely not be saying they are now a third country or somehow outside Europe. We need to make efforts to keep the Brits tied to Europe as it serves our national security interests.

As concerns Estonia, keeping that battalion here is a major investment by the UK into Europe and the defense of Estonia. We must not be building fortress Europe. It is in our interests for the EU to remain as open as possible – open definitely to the Brits as they are no aliens even if they are not currently a part of the EU.

We recently witnessed a shining example of “Baltic cooperation” after which Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrelius Landsbergis sent Estonia his regards via Twitter and urged some people to have more common sense.

I also released a clear statement. Insulting our allies to score domestic policy points is unacceptable and works to undermine defense cooperation with said allies. Even if they don’t confront you about it…

The Lithuanians did!

Indeed, but even had they not, they would have at least remembered the incident that undoubtedly affects cooperation. It is a risky game to play in terms of Estonia’s international interests and relations.

What will stay with you from last year?

I have emphasized the role of Defense Forces members serving in Mali, Afghanistan and elsewhere in my end of the year speeches. Sitting behind this table, it is difficult to even imagine the conditions over there. The immediate threat, climate, contact with locals etc. We need to salute them. All international missions will continue this year. I believe that everyone in Estonia must root for the boys and girls overseas. All the best to them!

I can already hear rough voices from behind the bar at the Green Toad where rugged-looking men are sipping strong beer from plastic bottles and asking what business we have in Mali?

We are talking about the armed forces. The group of people that decide whether to send troops to Mali or Afghanistan is very small indeed. They can be counted on the fingers of two hands. But they are the same people who will decide whether to come to Estonia’s aid or not. If they know Estonians are with them in Afghanistan or Mali or in Iraq with the Americans, that is how we access them – to say that we are prepared to contribute our troops and we know you are willing to defend Estonia if the need arises. It is a tangible contribution and not empty words a la, “let’s all be friends, get along and then you can come and bail us out when we need you.” We need to contribute to NATO defense.

How convenient is it for you to serve as minister in this coalition?

Just as there is political consensus to invest 2 percent of GDP to defense no matter what, it is also very important to maintain stability in the field of national defense.