Estonia on course for peak of coronavirus second wave

Journalists wearing masks at the COVID-19 press conference on Friday. Photo: Konstantin Sednev

The day before yesterday (Thursday – ed.) brought 241 new coronavirus cases for the biggest single daily number of cases in Estonia. Minister of Social Affairs Tanel Kiik, Director of the Health Board Üllar Lanno and the board’s medical staff head Arkadi Popov gave a press conference on Friday.

“The virus is spreading especially quickly in the capital and the near vicinity, while its center of gravity is spreading out. We have moved from localized outbreaks to the stage of epidemic spread,” Lanno said. “If the case rate per 100,000 people stands at 105.8 today, it really reflects the situation two weeks ago. The increase in the number of cases suggests the virus has become widespread. Looking at preparations for Christmas and New Year’s Eve parties, we can forecast hundreds of new daily cases.”

All journalists who attended the Friday press conference were wearing a mask – just as it was in spring when toilet paper had run out and people feared what was still an unknown virus.

Hospitals making preparations

Head of the Health Board’s medical staff Arkadi Popov found that even though daily case rates have been similar lately, a clear growth trend is visible. “The more people are infected, the more they will include elderly people. And the more hospital beds we will need,” the medical expert said.

According to Popov, forecasts suggest the number of people who need hospital treatment will grow in the coming weeks. Both the West Tallinn Central Hospital and East Tallinn Central Hospital are adding COVID-19 beds.

COVID-19 patients are being treated at the West Tallinn Central Hospital’s Merimetsa Infectious Diseases Clinic. The hospital currently has 53 beds. “Three of the clinic’s four floors are fully staffed and in use,” chairman of the hospital’s board Imbi Moks told Postimees.

She explained that one floor is permanently standing by, complete with hospital rooms, beds and equipment for treating infectious patients should their number in Northern Estonia explode.

The floor can be used for treating COVID-19 patients. “But this would require additional staff to be sent to work in the clinic – hospital rooms and beds cannot treat patients,” Moks said.

The chief explained that agreements for workers to move to the clinic are in place. “Our hospital is treating 23 COVID-19 patients as of Friday afternoon, but that could change quickly,” Moks said.

Minister Tanel Kiik said at the press conference that this is not the time to throw parties or celebrate birthdays. Üllar Lanno said that it is understandable some traditions are kept even in spite of very strict instructions. “Leaving this world needs to be concluded with dignity. However, when inviting guests to a wake, marriage of birthday party, there are ways to follow the Health Board’s advice,” Lanno emphasized.

For example, seating people behind a traditional long table can be avoided. The head of the board recommended the use of round tables to leave enough distance between guests and having fewer people sit at the same table.

Lanno said after the Friday press conference that he rather supports making masks and social dispersion mandatory. The director’s opinion is based on studies and information from local government heads. “Local governments expect stricter restrictions,” he said. A survey suggests that around 30 percent of people would welcome tougher coronavirus measures. “Of course, the human rights aspect needs to be considered – what is the level of risk and how free we want to be in our activity.”

This weekend will mark Father’s Day and people traditionally want to spend time with family. “I would urge people to consider how to do that so as not to infect loved ones,” Lanno said.

Minister of Education and Research Mailis Reps told ERR on Friday that the government discussed measures for combating the coronavirus at length on Thursday but new restrictions were not decided. Reps added that it is likely that the 2+2 social distance rule will be reintroduced in some form and wearing of masks recommended when taking public transport.

Arkadi Popov believes that the fewer restrictions there will be, the better – people should take responsibility for their actions. “We do not see people wearing masks in shopping centers today. And people are looking to socialize over the weekend,” he said. “However, the time has now come for people to seriously consider whether going to the mall is a good idea. That perhaps they should wear masks to protect themselves and manage risks,” he said, adding that if people follow recommendations, restrictions will not be needed.

New spikes expected

Popov said that experience from other countries suggests that the case rate will start growing exponentially at a certain point. This experience is reflected in an example given to Postimees by mathematician Juna Aru: “Let us presume every infected person infects one other person every day. We will have three patients three days later, ten patients ten days on, a hundred patients after 100 days.”

Minister of Culture Tõnis Lukas (Isamaa) told Postimees that the Health Board has not proposed changing the occupancy requirement for theaters, movie theaters and concert halls. The minister does not favor the change himself. “We have not seen the disease spread in theaters, cinemas or during concerts.” These places seem to be the safest of all, Lukas said in summary.

What about should the Health Board suggest limiting occupancy to 50 percent? “As far as I know, the Health Board has not said it. These are among the safest places in Estonia today,” the minister said. Lukas added that measures should discipline and correct behavior in places where the virus is currently spreading.