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A record number of COVID-19 cases were diagnosed inside a 24-hour period on Wednesday when 125 people were found to have the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Experts told Postimees that there is no cause for concern yet. However, the situation is complicated as up to 25 percent of people diagnosed are asymptomatic.
An outbreak is underway in a nursing home, while the general infection rate is also growing. Mass testing at a Rapla County care home produced 32 new cases of COVID-19.
Epidemiologists are still looking for the source of the outbreak in Rapla County. Deputy head of the Health Board Mari-Anne Härma said that both clients and employees have been infected. “In most cases, the virus is introduced by an employee and starts spreading rapidly after that,” Härma said.
Director of the nursing home Anne-Ly Pedaja told Postimees that she cannot go into details as the matter concerns employees and customers. “I can tell you that both our customers and staff have tested positive. Everyone is asymptomatic and showing no signs of the virus,” she explained.
The first people at the nursing home tested positive on October 22. Mass testing followed on October 26. The nursing home was split into so-called contaminated and clean zones when the first cases were diagnosed.
The home laid down a visitation ban to protect its residents and staff and stop the virus from spreading on October 22.
Asymptomatic cases worrying
“We have no reason to hope things will improve in the near future. We need to prepare ourselves, keeping in mind that the summer is over and the flu season is here,” Härma said. She added that the relative importance of asymptomatic carriers of the virus is growing. “Around a quarter of new cases are asymptomatic. If you suspect having been in contact with a carrier, keep an eye out even for mild symptoms, such as a headache or a sore throat,” the Health Board’s deputy director said.
The board has different ways of learning about asymptomatic cases, including people who get tested when returning from abroad, people asked to get tested before coming in for an appointment by family doctors and those tested at hospitals.
Do we have hidden spread of the virus? The Health Board said we cannot talk about widespread hidden infections today. “Surveys and wastewater sampling have allowed us to discover so-called hidden outbreaks,” Eike Kingsepp, media adviser for the Health Board, said. The board is capable of determining around 80 percent of sources of infection in Harju County.
Because Estonia has a lot of workplace outbreaks – for example, the Health Board’s regional department North is monitoring 42 employees belonging to the same working team and Health Board South the so-called Jõgeva workplace outbreak involving 20 people – the board asks people exhibiting even minor symptoms to turn to their family doctor as workplace outbreaks get started when people with mild symptoms show up for work.
Even though a 24-hour period that culminated on Wednesday produced 125 new cases, there is no cause for panic, says Krista Fischer, professor of mathematical statistics with the University of Tartu, who was part of the government’s scientific advisory council during the COVID-19 emergency situation in spring.
Fischer says that it is too early to say whether the case rate is spiking as a single new outbreak in Rapla County involving 30 people does little to affect the big picture. The professor says that the situation in Estonia remains much better than what is happening in Latvia and Lithuania.
Virology professor Irja Lutsar agrees that a single day’s test results are not enough to draw long-reaching conclusions, adding that she is nevertheless worried to see the percentage of positive test results growing. It was 3.5 percent last week.