The online questionnaire was put to 752 people yesterday and the day before – in other words, in the days immediately following Center’s decision to launch coalition talks with the Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) and Isamaa. The results suggest that the coalition currently being negotiated is the least popular out of all possibilities. EKRE voters are the only group satisfied with developments.
A three-way coalition between the Center Party, EKRE and Isamaa had the support of 24 percent of those questioned. A coalition of the Reform Party, Social Democrat Party (SDE) and Isamaa was the most popular choice (30 percent), with a marriage of Reform and Center not far behind (29 percent).
It can be concluded that nearly 59 percent of people would prefer a coalition one of the participants of which would be the Reform Party. Options including the Center Party are supported by 53 percent of people and those sporting Isamaa 54 percent.
EKRE voters fine with things
Looking at the coalition preferences of supporters of individual parties, it turns out voters of Center and Isamaa would much rather see a different coalition from what their parties are currently negotiating. The only group that would be happy with a Center-EKRE-Isamaa coalition are voters of the national conservatives. No fewer than 87 percent of EKRE voters picked it as the best option.
Supporters of the Center Party would prefer an alliance with the Reform Party, while Isamaa backers would like to see a three-way coalition with Reform and SDE. The currently negotiated coalition clearly benefits EKRE the most as it would cater to the wishes of most of their voters.
“The coalition being formed by [PM] Jüri Ratas has the support of just 24 percent of voting-age citizens,” said Aivar Voog, head of marketing strategies at the pollster. “A coalition between Center, EKRE and Isamaa is clearly supported only by EKRE voters. Support for this option is somewhat higher than average (30 percent) among men, elderly and residents of rural areas.”
Center’s biggest risk in working with the two conservative parties lies in the reaction of their Russian-speaking voters who have so far made up the foundation of Center’s supporter base. In the Kantar Emor poll, non-Estonian-speakers rate the coalition very low.
Citizens of other nationalities clearly prefer a coalition between Center and Reform (44 percent), wile only 8 percent of non-Estonian-speakers support a Center-EKRE-Isamaa union.
MEP Yana Toom (Center), who is critical of her party forming a coalition with EKRE, said that on the one hand, she should be glad her gut feeling did not deceive her. “However, considering the sample and the general media atmosphere, the result was to be expected,” she commented. “No one knows the marrow of the coalition agreement today. There is no talk of content, just behavior and disappointment.”