Changes will not concern today's pensioners or existing pension units. The latter will not be recalculated, while pensions will be calculated based solely on the seniority component as from 2037.
I pillar pension is currently made up of the base component, seniority component – collected before 1998 – and from 1999 the insurance component. The base component is a fixed sum that is the same for everyone.
The base component has historically made up around one-third of the average pension. The insurance component depends completely on salary, while the seniority component takes into account years worked. Income inequality of pensioners has so far been four times lower compared to the working-age part of the population.
This difference would be translated into pensions in the future. Average sums of the highest 20 percent and the lowest 20 percent of pensions would differ up to fourfold in the future (the difference is currently 1.7 times).
Reduced solidarity would lead to a situation where people with modest income today would be paid very low pensions.
Pensions are limited by the state's financial capacity that depends on the number of working-age people and the social tax they pay.
The population is estimated to fall from the current 1.3 million people to 1.11 million by 2060. The number of 18-36-year-old people will fall by 256,000 or 32 percent. Number of people over the age of 63 will grow by 106,000 or 41 percent.
Comparing the number of workers and pensioners suggests that if over the past 20 years Estonia has had more than two workers per pensioner, that coefficient will fall below 1.3 by 2060, higher retirement age taken into account.
The social and finance ministries will now put together draft legislation to amend the State Pension Insurance Act to be presented to the government in the first quarter of 2018.