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Marina Kaljurand, while referring to herself as a supraparty candidate, enjoys the support of old friends from the Reform Party and is beginning to gain ground among the social democrats.Marina Kaljurand, while referring to herself as a supraparty candidate, enjoys the support of old friends from the Reform Party and is beginning to gain ground among the social democrats.
„We are cooperating closely with Keit (Pentus-Rosimannus).“ An equivalent of a behind the scenes sentence recently uttered by Estonia's most popular presidential candidate Marina Kaljurand. The woman who calls herself the most independent candidate transcending parties.
The latter positioning raises some questions looking at Kaljurand's supporters. In a situation where the background of most other presidential candidates is clear, several members of team Kaljurand are better known through scandal.
For example the Rosimannus family; or Remo Holsmer, who gained wider notoriety through ferry businessman Vjatšeslav Leedo's „four lemons“ affair. One of Kaljurand's most ardent supporters is IRL defector Eerik-Niiles Kross, who was one of the authors of operation „Silver Bullet“ that denied Siim Kallas the prime minister's seat in 2014.
There was no place for the Rosimannus family in Kallas' long game, which led to media operation „Silver Bullet“. Team Kross-Rosimannus that managed to force Kallas to withdraw once, now finds itself back where it started.
That is why team Kaljurand is often referred to as Kallas' bane backstage. It was of vital importance to more than one member of team Kaljurand to make sure the, by now, former foreign minister would not drop out of the race half-way. For example, Kaljurand's presidency would help the Rosimannuses take another step away from the pesky Autorollo scandal.
Just how much influence the Rosimannus family has over Kaljurand, only they themselves can gauge. However, those initiated in foreign policy were surprised by Kaljurand's sudden decision from several months ago to appoint head of the foreign policy department of the Office of the President Kai Kaarelson, known for being friends with Keit Pentus-Rosimannus, as Estonia's new ambassador to Georgia. Appointment as ambassador usually has a long waiting period.
Several other supporters have personal interests at stake, as well as ambition to play a part in the future president's court. While Eesti Ekspress wrote last week that Kaljurand has split the Reform Party, that is rather far form the truth.
„The board voted 12:2 in favor of Kallas. That is not 7:5 or 8:4 – it is a very clear divide,“ a member of the party's board told Postimees. Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas has left Kaljurand's camp in a situation where the presidential candidate Rõivas himself introduced to big politics could possibly cause a government crisis.
The deciding factor are the social democrats who currently lack a candidate of their own. Their votes will determine who will reach the second round of voting in the Electoral College. Provided the social democrats will not set up Nestor, they are leaning towards Kaljurand at the moment.
As a career diplomat, it is in Marina Kaljurand's blood to get along well with everybody. That quality is of little use in the office of the president, however, as the latter will have to make split-second decisions and take stands diplomats would never take.
„Foreign ministry talking points will be of no use,“ an experienced political expert said. „Marina's political experience is so thin as to do her no favors in terms of her presidential ambitions.“ The expert added, however, that he finds Kaljurand to be very sympathetic as a person. „Perhaps her meteoric flight has been too fast.“
Or as put by a foreign policy insider: „It remains a big question whether Marina will turn out to be the kind of foreign politician she claims to be, or whether she is just an internationally mediocre diplomat.“
And this is where the dog lies buried: what are Marina Kaljurand's actual abilities as a politician? Yes, we know her strengths: an empathic fighter. However, the rest remains a question mark. Feedback concerning Kaljurand from the government provides little cause for optimism. Different assessments reveal Kaljurand had been among the most out of sight ministers during cabinet sittings, while her utterances dwindled almost to nonexistence after her presidential ambitions were revealed. In all that time, colleagues could recall at most seven or eight unimportant sentences.
Barring a single exception: Kaljurand became unexpectedly vocal during a sitting headed by Minister of Health Care and Labor Jevgeni Ossinovski standing in for the prime minister. To her colleagues' surprise, Marina began to rile up the cabinet on the subject of Estonia's earlier EU presidency. Kaljurand believed Estonia had made a mistake in agreeing to move up its presidency by six months, and that the government should have argued more.
As acting prime minister, Ossinovski had no authority to argue the point.
What is more, Kaljurand had smilingly approved of the project when conversing with Rõivas a month ago.
„Talking about mettle, Marina does not have that steel spine that keeps one on track,“ a colleague said. „And she tends to blurt out, which is something one cannot afford in politics.“
Let us take for example her sentence that she does not intend to talk to the heads of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE). „If Marina wants to be the president of all of Estonia, perhaps she should talk to the people in that party the most, to avoid confrontation,“ a person told Postimees.