Marina liked by everyone

Photo: Erik Prozes

Marina Kaljurand would have no serious competition for president were the matter up to the people, a recent survey suggests.

«Incredible,» was Kaljurand's reaction when she heard the news. «It is very pleasing, and I'm grateful to my voters. This support shows I made the right decision.»

Reform Party deputy chairman Siim Kallas acknowledged strong competition. «Of course it is good when your support rating climbs, and bad when it falls,» Kallas said. While the Reform Party's official candidate is in second place overall, his support is less than half of Kaljurand's.

«I'm glad to run in the Electoral College alongside a candidate who is beloved by the people. Members of the Electoral College can vote based on various circumstances,» Kallas said, suggesting he should be written off just yet.

A poll held by TNS Emor between Tuesday and Thursday of last week (after the Reform Party's decision to back Siim Kallas and before Kaljurand's decision to run in the Electoral College) gives Kaljurand 40 percent of the popular vote.

The last time polls reflected this kind of support for a presidential candidate was when Toomas Hendrik Ilves was running against Arnold Rüütel in 2006.

Calm and stoic

Head of surveys at TNS Emor, Aivar Voog, said that support for Kaljurand could continue to climb after her decision (from last Friday) to run for president and resign as foreign minister. Kaljurand's support was measured at 30 percent, with Kallas catching up, having reached 22 percent, just last month. Support for the Reform Party's honorary chairman has fallen to 18 percent after the party decided in favor of Kallas as its official candidate.

«Kaljurand's recent surge is made up of protest votes, while her core support seems based on meeting expectations people have for the next president,» Voog commented.

«Kaljurand is calm, looks presentable, appears confident, and is experienced,» Voog said.

Voog compared Kaljurand to the so-called Arnold Rüütel phenomenon. «Calm demeanor, stoicism. After the high-brow rhetoric and elitism of Ilves, the people want someone more folksy, simpler; someone who wouldn't show off or use complicated expressions.» These expectations, and especially domestic focus, as opposed to Ilves' foreign policy orientation, were highlighted as the people's expectations in a survey carried out in December.

The survey expert added that when Ilves was elected to replace Arnold Rüütel in 2006, expectations called for a president concentrating more on foreign policy.

«Following Ilves, expectations have changed, and people want the next president to be strong in domestic communication. People hope Kaljurand can unite different ethnic and age groups,» Voog said.

Support for Kaljurand is equally high– at least one third support her – in all age groups, among Estonians and non-Estonians, as well as people with different levels of education and income.

«Kaljurand's support is noticeably higher only among women and rural area residents – nearly half of people from these groups support her bid for president,» Voog pointed out.

Kaljurand has strong support from voters of social democrats (more than half), but also Center Party, IRL, and Free Party. Kaljurand loses to Kallas only among Reform Party voters of whom 37 percent would vote for the former and 46 percent for the latter. While voters of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) generally prefer its chairman Mart Helme, every fifth EKRE voter prefers Kaljurand.

Voog said that Kallas' support is suffering from past skeletons Marina Kaljurand does not have.

Support for the remaining candidates is between five and eight percent. «Their support (Mailis Reps, Eiki Nestor, Allar Jõks, and Mart Helme) is marginal,» Voog admitted.

Above parties

Voog said that Chairman of the Riigikogu Eiki Nestor has managed to secure good publicity in the Riigikogu voting rounds, and that support for Nestor has room to grow in the coming years, provided the politician can make himself seen.

Support for Jõks was highest in June when his candidacy surfaced more clearly. Support for Kallas had started climbing at the same time and both were on the 11 percent mark.

Voog said that Jõks' falling support rating suggests he has not been as successful as Kaljurand in meeting people's expectations. «He (Jõks – ed) has been inconsistent, he has made unfortunate mistakes when speaking for which he has been forced to apologize – that does leave a good impression in a situation where people want a level-headed president.»

Even though Kaljurand has had close ties to the Reform Party, the party's move to officially distance itself from her has afforded her the possibility to appear more as a supraparty candidate. «And that is what the people expect,» Voog said.

«Kaljurand is a sympathy and protest candidate; she is simple, legible, and a contrast to Ilves. She is also a woman, and society has come to expect women to have access to high places,» Voog said in summary.