Team Kaljurand waiting for affirmation

Photo: Sander Ilvest

It should become clear in the coming days whether Marina Kaljurand will stick with her initial decision to continue as foreign minister, or whether she will run for president in the Electoral College – betting on the votes of independent electors.

While Kaljurand has two weeks to make that decision, she is likely to make it sooner. Information available to Postimees suggests the score is currently 51:49 in favor of running.

Kaljurand's team, her supporters, include those who recommend her to see it through, as well as those who recommend her to accept the situation (at least this time) and concentrate on being foreign minister to secure a high place on the Reform Party's election list at the next general election. That said, betting on a minister's position in a government the longevity of which could possibly be measured in anything from a few to six months might not be the most sensible and logical choice.

Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas has allegedly told Kaljurand, after the party's board meeting, that she will continue as foreign minister in his government. It is sensible for Rõivas to take care of Kaljurand as prime minister and party chairman, as a decision on her part to run for president against the board's will could further erode Rõivas' authority and split the party.

This is why some members, most of whom could be described as Reform Party natives, find it would be better to avoid pitting Kallas against Kaljurand in the college. People standing outside the party, as well as some board members who have recently changed their tunes, partly following Siim Kallas' rather unfortunate utterances in recent days, would like to see Kaljurand run for president.

A decision to run from Kaljurand would best align with the interests of IRL and the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) as polls suggests their voters would not like Kaljurand (the average voter of the two conservative parties is a middle-aged man with basic, secondary, or, in IRL's case, higher education for whom Kallas would be the obvious second choice).

Supporters of both Kallas and Kaljurand realize that a decision to run by Kaljurand would ruin the former's chances of becoming president, while it is by no means certain the latter would be successful herself.

Cutting deals in the Electoral College and a winning strategy requires a lengthy career in politics, which might not be Kaljurand's strong suit. What is more – running in the second voting round is held to be extremely difficult without party support. Stronger candidates tend to hijack each other's votes in the college, which affords an opportunity to weaker counterparts. It is out of the question both Kallas and Kaljurand will reach the second round of voting.

Several of Kaljurand's supporters in the Reform Party have made it known that Kallas will not get their votes in the Electoral College. Should they add their names to the 21 signatures needed to set up Kaljurand in the college, they will get to remain members of the party. However, we can be sure their names will be marked down for the future.