With two weeks to go till presidential elections, preferences of parliament members point to President not elected in Riigikogu while direct mandates to electoral body go to Siim Kallas and Mailis Reps.
At round one of the election, on August 29th, up to four candidates may get set up in Riigikogu – not limited to Mr Kallas and Ms Reps, Allar Jõks and Eiki Nestor may be the ones.
All four are likely to harvest the same amount of votes that they are awarder while being put forward. The result will not reflect the actual balance of power.
It is predicted to get intense in the night of August 30th as the deputies must decide who would be set up for round two after all, who donates or sells their votes to whom, and who will refuse to play the deal making game.
As a summertime feat, Postimees got telephone contact with 91 Riigikogu members out of 101 and asked for their first and second preferences.
The responses show a likelihood of Siim Kallas (Reform) pocketing the leading amount of 50 votes if first and second preferences are put together.
The only way he could get elected at Riigikogu is if Centre would yield its votes. However, the only way to make Centre donate their Ms Reps votes would be in exchange to be allowed into government.
At the moment, such agreement is nowhere in sight.
With Mr Kallas and Ms Reps likely to automatically go to electoral body, at least according to promises by prime minister Taavi Rõivas another Reform candidate, the non-party Marina Kaljurand will be enrolled as well.
That according to Ms Kaljurand.
The overall impression by the phone calls, however, is that no candidate is set in stone, so to speak. After round one where the party line is basically followed, preferences het blurred.
Regarding the seven EKRE deputies, they are likely to abstain from voting at Riigikogu and wait to draw attention to chairman Mart Helme among electoral body.
While the Free have decided to back Mr Jõks, some are hesitating after the latter uttered a morally unbecoming remark during live debate.
While Reform will be attempting to leave the impression of getting the President elected at round one, the scenario looks unlikely as based on phone calls.