New figures show Estonian population bigger by 2,673 than last year

Photo: Marianne Loorents / SL Õhtuleht

According to revised figures by Statistics Estonia, 1,315,944 persons lived in Estonia on Jan. 1 this year, 2,673 more than at the same time in 2015.

The population number decreased by 1,336 due to a negative natural increase, but increased by 2,410 as a result of positive net migration. The increase in the population size was also a result of changes in the calculation methodology, which resulted in the population number becoming bigger by 1,599.

An important change of 2015 was positive net migration, which means that immigration exceeded emigration. Altogether 15,413 persons took up residence in Estonia and 13,003 persons left Estonia during the year. From 2015, Statistics Estonia also takes into account of unregistered migration besides registered migration. As external migration is often left unregistered by residents of Estonia, the size of migration flows increased compared to previous years.

The population size increased also as a result of Statistics Estonia's new population calculation methodology, under which the classification of persons into permanent residents is carried out using an index that is calculated based on registers.

As part of preparations for the 2020 register-based Population and Housing Census, Statistics Estonia analyzed the quality of official databases and registers and compiled the residency index for inhabitants based on that data. From register data it became apparent that there were 1,599 more persons living in Estonia compared to what was indicated by the previously used population census data. The population mainly increased as a result of immigration of European Union citizens, which the previous methodology reflected to a smaller extent.

In 2015, 13,907 persons were born and 15,243 persons died in Estonia. The number of births increased compared to the two previous years but was by 2,000 smaller than in 2010, which marked the peak of the increase in births. The number of women in childbearing age has also decreased in the past five years. The number of deaths has been declining since the mid-1990s and in the past six years the number of deaths per year has remained between 15,000 and 16,000.

As an update, Statistics Estonia has additionally made some changes in the data. The most important methodological change is that it now uses the place of residence marked in the Population Register as the place of residence. This is something that has to be taken into account when analyzing changes in the population size. In connection to the continuously increasing life expectancy, Statistics Estonia now publishes population indicators until the age 100+, instead of the previous 85+.

In the population of local governments, the population of city districts is shown separately. Persons who were active in various registers in Estonia but who do not have their place of residence shown in the Population Register are classified under «County unknown» in the Statistical Database.