Russia has been constantly increasing its military capacity in the direction of the Baltic countries and has also increased the capacity and complexity of exercises, it can be seen from the first annual report of the Estonian Information Board (EIB).
Russia is gradually increasing its military capacity in the Baltic operational direction, it can be seen from the report drawn up by Estonia's foreign intelligence service. Russia has also increased the volume and complexity of its exercises in the region.
«Among the most significant changes are the formation of the 15th army aviation brigade in Ostrov (Pskov oblast) and placement of SS-26 Iskander tactical missiles (NATO reporting name – Stone) to Luga. Several units of the 6th Army have been relocated to the Narva tactical direction, and the Sertolovo training center to the north of St. Petersburg is to be transformed into a training center for armored forces,» it is written in the report. In addition, it is possible that an army aviation brigade and a reconnaissance or Special Forces brigade may also be formed in the Baltic operational direction (Estonia, Latvia) in the coming years.
According to the yearbook the maneuver units of the Western Military District's ground forces are capable of fielding 13–15 battalion tactical groups, equivalent to five maneuver brigades, fully or mostly staffed with contractual servicemen who are sufficiently trained to execute combat tasks. Airborne forces are capable of assembling up to 15 and the naval infantry 2–3 battalion tactical groups.
A battalion tactical group (BTG) is a military unit capable of independently carrying out combat operations. The core of BTGs – battalions – are supplemented by supporting elements from other units. Typically, there are 700–900 soldiers in a BTG.
In addition to the increase in the number of troops in the Baltic operational direction, new weapon systems placed in Kaliningrad and near the Estonian-Latvian border also pose a threat to Estonia. With these weapons, like Iskander, sea or air-based cruise missiles, etc., Russia would be able to isolate Estonia from its allies and attack critical targets preventing NATO support from being able to reach Estonia.
«Russian military planning is paying increasing attention to attacks against critical targets. In the Baltic countries, such targets may include infrastructure that is linked to the reception or servicing of NATO reinforcement. However, the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Estonian targets or NATO units located here is highly unlikely,» it is written in the yearbook.
The report also states that developments in Kaliningrad and Belarus are also important factors from the perspective of Estonia's security.