Savisaar v Kallas brewing?

Photo: Sander Ilvest, Viktor Burkivski

Increasingly, party think-tanks are thinking about upcoming presidential elections and in Reform ranks Team Siim Kallas is being planned. 

The latest popularity poll regarding potential presidential candidates showed a quite convincing lead to the non-party foreign minister Marina Kaljurand (20.3 percent) as followed by Centre chairman Edgar Savisaar (12.6) and honorary Reform chairman Siim Kallas (10.6).

At the moment, no party desires to open its cards but it is predicted that the latter two will battle it out in the end.

Mr Kallas has said that should the proposal be made, he will agree to be involved. On January 21st on Tallinn TV, Mr Savisaar said that the activities of security police and the prosecutor’s office cause no fear in him, and rather boost his willingness to run for Estonia’s president.

None of potential candidates is currently about to announce the candidacy. As also hazily replied by Mr Savisaar to a question about him running for President as set by the TV host: «Whoever says he will run will be shot holey. I’d like to spare myself a bit. The time will come when the candidate appears who will also pass. Whether it will be me or somebody else – let’s see, time and life will tell.» As noted by Mr Savisaar, his potential problem with candidacy would not be health but the people being unable to elect the president directly.  

After Mr Kallas suddenly left Estonia in March 2014, he grew distant from Reform Party and begun to seek for support in other parties as well. By now, the tide has turned and to Postimees’ knowledge Reform is putting together a team which would be with Mr Kallas in his presidential campaign.

The very team would like to hear clearly from Mr Kallas what exactly happened two years ago. As the surprise attack triggered by the daily Eesti Päevaleht around the 20-years-old guarantee letters saga came to nothing, who then did he up and run?

With view on a potential presidential campaign, Reform ain’t too happy about the habit of Mr Kallas to do the occasional solo. The latest thing to disturb many a Reform figure was the statement by Mr Kallas that as Estonia assumes EU presidency in 2018, we might propose to do away corporate income tax from reinvested profits in all of EU.

Essentially, Mr Kallas poked the Taavi Rõivas government about its lack of a clear vision and programme for the presidency to attract European attention. The strictly organised party does not like such individual initiatives.

Also, Reform is keeping a close eye in popularity polls still enthroned by the foreign minister Marina Kaljurand appointed by themselves. Within the party, however, the lady lacks an overall support and – as opposed to Mr Kallas – is not known in her views.

After all that has been going on with the Soc Dems, Reform has arrived at the understanding that the current Riigikogu speaker Eiki Nestor does not fit for a potential president, neither does the latter want the post any more. While the Soc Dems have toyed with the name of Marju Lauristin, to the knowledge of Postimees she is rather tired already of the constant flying related to being a MEP and being a president would provide no relief. In political circles, it’s long been a talk that she might actually step down from European Parliament.

One thing seems to be clear: the not-on-friendly-terms coalition parties will prove unable to agree about a candidate the Riigikogu will not get the president elected at first try.

A possible scenario there will be Mr Kallas v Mr Savisaar in the second and broader round where it is predicted that Mr Kallas might win.  

Meanwhile, Reform is also thinking what will happen if Marina Kaljurand up and very much wants to become president. In that case, she should step down from being foreign minister in a few months and launch an active campaign. The Reform nightmare would be Mr Kallas and Ms Kaljurand both running and potentially eating each other’s votes.

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The names tossed around?

Marina Kaljurand

Edgar Savisaar

Siim Kallas

Jüri Luik

Indrek Tarand

Kersti Kaljulaid

Marju Lauristin

Jaak Jõerüüt