Analyst doesn't support creating Baltic nuclear weapons free zone

Photo: AP / Scanpix

According to an analyst at the International Center for Defence and Security (ICDS) think tank based in Tallinn, the suggestion of the U.S. think tank Stimson Center that a nuclear weapons free zone should be set up in the Baltic region is unrealistic and it would not help to reduce the possible wish of Russia to use nuclear weapons in the region.

According to a report published by the U.S. think tank Stimson Center on Tuesday, the danger of nuclear war in the Baltic-Nordic region is small, but it could be reduced further by setting up a nuclear weapons free zone which would be managed by neutral countries in the region.

«Of the possible solutions mentioned in the report the first one, according to which strengthening NATO's conventional military capabilities to defend the Baltic nations as to deter Russia from intervening in those nations, is a reasonable one,» a researcher at ICDS Henrik Praks told BNS on Wednesday. «Thereby a possibility would be excluded of the Russian administration making a miscalculation, as a result of which an unforeseen conflict could arise where a nuclear weapon could be used,» Praks said.

According to Praks, the proposal of setting up an official nuclear weapons free zone, which would include the countries by the Baltic Sea and the removal of NATO nuclear weapons from Germany, would not help reach the goal.

NATO has kept a low profile regarding nuclear weapons issues after the end of the Cold War and created a declaration in 1997 in which it stated that NATO has no intention, need nor plans to put any nuclear weapons on the territories of its new member states, Praks said. This basically means that NATO created a de facto nuclear weapons free zone which involves the Baltic countries and Poland, he added.

At the same time, Russia has been very nontransparent in its nuclear policy and has refrained from any dialogue with NATO in that field, Praks said. He added that there is no point in hoping that at present Russia would be ready to change its policy related to nuclear weapons.

«But if NATO were to now signal its readiness to reduce its minimal nuclear presence in Europe, it would give the wrong signal to Russia. It might result in Russia getting the courage to make even more provocative steps which might lead to situations where using a nuclear weapon would be considered,» Praks said.

«There are significant ethnic Russian populations in Estonia and Latvia with a history of disagreements and some conflict with the national governments. Any armed conflict between a Russian secessionist movement and a Baltic government could provide Russia an excuse for military intervention, which could easily devolve into a war with NATO and a risk of nuclear use,» it is written in the report.

Although the risk of such conflicts and nuclear use is small, it is essential to reduce these dangers even further, the report says and suggests to «strengthen NATO's conventional military capabilities to defend the Baltic nations as to deter Russia from intervening in those nations» as well as to initiate a diplomatic dialogue about creating a Baltic nuclear weapons free zone. «Implementing such a zone would necessitate removal of Russian weapons from Kaliningrad and NATO nuclear weapons from Germany; all other nations bordering the Baltic are already nuclear free,» it is written in the report.