To hope that in two years at next Centre Party congress Kadri Simson could get elected and set up as prime ministerial candidate for 2019 general elections would surely be presumptuous.
Camp Change to carry on
1st December 2015, 16:14
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Not limited to Sunday night right after the in-party elections, the team of Ms Simson met again at mid-day yesterday. The plan is simple: carry on with current face and direction. The winners will not be judged, and they will be expecting potential surprises by the board elected. They will stick together as a team – in light of support at congress by near half of party cadre, change is desired.
By votes cast at electing party board, it was actually Jüri Ratas who was top popular guy at congress with 571 votes pocketed (Mr Savisaar got 541) and Mr Ratas keeps on supporting Ms Simson. In a few years, perhaps it will again be Ms Simson and Mr Savisaar competing for party chairmanship, or Ms Simson and Yana Toom, say (268 votes at board for latter).
With Riigikogu faction head is automatically a board member, Mr Savisaar may not leave it like that. As he put it plain, at the congress: Ms Simson has chosen another path.
Nominating not traditional two but four vice chairmen to stand at his side – Jaanus Karilaid, Siret Kotka, Yana Toom and Olga Ivanova –, Mr Savisaar made it clear that people a lot more popular in the party than these four like Ms Simson (or Mr Ratas or Mailis Reps or Enn Eesmaa as most successful at election of the board) must not necessarily head the faction for long. Why let a «traitor» to board meetings who does command the support of half the party?
Even so, Mr Savisaar is probably aware that Team Simson is too big in Riigikogu to go for a purge. In the spring, the regularly scheduled faction leadership elections are due where all deputies at the faction may run, and as things currently stand, Mr Savisaar’s favourites have a majority by one at the faction at 14 vs 13.
Political scientists Erik Moora and Tõnis Saarts say that with Mr Savisaar at helm Centre Party isn’t in for major changes. Both observe that longer-term Ms Simson will cease to chair the faction. They suggest Ms Kotka, Mr Karilaid or Ms Ivanova may land the post.
Mr Saarts believes not that things will happen within weeks. «It will get critical in a year, or 1.5 years. During that time we will be seeing what will be done with opponents to Mr Savisaar. A sign to watch is placement in local election lists,» he said.
Mr Saarts said Centre election results show that excising problems will deepen and in Estonia nothing will change.
«The forced governmental marriage continues, Tallinn will be strongly undergoverned, these problems will only deepen. Supporters of Savisaar wanted the status quo to continue,» he said. «First of all, this is good news to Reform as over these past years the party has played on scaring the people with Mr Savisaar and now they can keep on doing that.»
Indeed – at the current coalition, some see the re-election of Mr Savisaar as rather positive. Firstly, him still at Centre helm will ensure the rightish government functionality at least for a time while Centre, instead of standing strong as a Russian minded party, is continually divided and without access to state power near-term.