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In November last year, the government decided where Rail Baltic would run – based on a document containing a colossal calculation blunder. Harju County governor considers the choice correct nonetheless.
Villagers reveal math error with Rail Baltic course option
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Under the weight of calculations by village society, Harju County governor Ülle Rajasalu was forced to admit that calculations by the Lithuanian consultations group UAB Kelprojektas show the course approved by government up to eight times better than reality.
«On basis of what you have specified, the consultant has reviewed the social-economical cost-benefit comparison and done certain adjustments,» Ms Rajasalu wrote in her reply to the village society, already in April.
«At the moment, the socio-economic cost-benefit indicators of Rail Baltic course comparison are being recalculated in more detail by our Lithuanian partners.»
As revealed by the comparison table (which the governmental decision was based upon), the westward course passing through densely populated area would, as compared to the easternmost one passing through a sparsely populated region, prove more expedient by €56m over 30 years’ time.
In her letter of reply, Ms Rajasalu admitted that the 30 years’ difference would be nothing but €9.5m in an optimistic scenario, and mere €7.2m in the basic scenario.
«The specifications will not alter favoured course options, the order of the variants in socio-economic comparison remains the same,» maintained the county governor.
«The calculations were done by a consultation group who has received from us ten million euros to choose the course option best for Estonia,» Ms Rajasalu, on vacation, told Postimees by phone yesterday.
Economy ministry, responsible for the construction of Rail Baltic, does not support the course favoured by Ms Rajasalu. They deem the eastern solution as better, but are allegedly unable to change the situation.
«The Lithuanian colleagues erred at some speeds and splits at certain subsections of the courses. The numbers have been reviewed and corrections inserted. The recalculations did not change the social-economical cost-benefit order of the options,» explained economy ministry PR-chief Rasmus Ruuda.
«Pursuant to law, large linear objects will be decided by county governor and ministry cannot issue her orders.»
At that, economy ministry is convinced that the errors were not committed due to methodology of calculation, neither did they affect the comparisons of other sections.
The Kangru Village teeming with Tallinn yuppies is in all out war against the Estonia-Europe railway becoming their next door neighbour.
«The real estate value of our homes will go down,» substantiated Kangru villager Meelis Šokman, CEO to Swedbank’s real estate firm Ektornet.
Mr Šokman has performed analysis of the course choice base documents with co-villager Aavo Remmelkoor, technical director of Pro Kapital Grupp. Together, they unearthed even other faults in the socio-economic analysis which would allegedly cast doubt on the entire analysis. «In the analysis, they set forth totally incomparable impacts as equal,» said Mr Remmelkoor.
«While in the course we dislike, the one that passes through densely inhabited area with a large risk of accidents, this is considered as equal to the line showing that in the alternative region the course crosses one or two wild animal tracks more than ours.»
By the time Postimees went to print, comments were not available from Kelprojektas and Estonian consultancy Hendrikson ja Ko related to Rail Baltic project.
The European money is already on its way
Connect Europe Facility hands Estonia €175m to design Rail Baltic and buy out land from owners. To this, taxpayers will need to add €38m. With the money obtained, technical design of the railway will begin, along with project design of Tallinn and Pärnu passenger terminals. The initial deals to buy out land from owners will come in the summer of 2016 as project design has been completed and plans confirmed. While the railways currently designed in Estonia allow trains to go at 140 km/h max, the upper Rail Baltic speed limit will be 240 km/h. The first train will ride the new rails in 2015, latest. For the three Baltics, the cost will total nearly €3.6bn, of which Estonia’s share is €1.3bn. About 80 percent of that is sought from the EU. In the first application round, Estonia asked for €191m.