Toiling towards coalition, by SMS and demanding theses

Photo: Erik Prozes

Calling three parties to coalition talks, Reform is in obvious urge for swift solution as each passing day pumps smaller partners with fresh faith, stronger stakes and other options.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas sent out a coalition talks message (and that, at least on one occasion, literally by SMS) to current partners Soc Dems, but also IRL and Free Party.

Unlike, Reform, the others are in no great hurry at all. At least in the eyes of several IRL people, Reform was not the smartest and politest by asking that others write their theses, by 12 pm today – three hours to start of talks.

«The desires, promises and programmes of all possible partners are public and, thus, also known to Reform. Serious coalition talks are for the very purpose to start, so to speak, from the beginning, around a table,» said an IRL politician.

Soc Dems are also unsure in the sincerity of Reform. Their chairman Sven Mikser said they’d probably not be going to the consultations today at 3 pm.

As assessed by Mr Mikser, this is not quite according to political logic that more are invited to talks than are needed for a coalition.

In the new Riigikogu, Reform has 30 seats, Soc Dems have 15, IRL 14 and the Free have eight. Meaning: three parties will do to put together a coalition to have over 51 votes in the parliament of 101. 

«Generally speaking, such extra-sized coalitions are not done and we would be very cautious regarding such coalitions where absolute Riigikogu majority would be held by three in the coalition. We would surely prefer a decent three-party coalition,» said Mr Mikser.

By last night, IRL was unaware of the stand taken by Soc Dems and were rather planning to attend. Hearing that, in addition to Soc Dems, the Free were also planning to go – substantiating this by their own board only meeting at 6 pm – IRL suspected the soc dems and the Free were having a deal. In real life, the smaller partners have not had serious mutual planning.

At the moment, IRL isn’t on best form to talk and play power plays. For that, the depression is still too deep. They are talking about a possible new leader, with the names of Marko Mihkelson and Margus Tsahkna mentioned most.

Yesterday, the talk was that Centre is unwilling to be left out altogether and has started to test the temperature. Not directly as dictated by Edgar Savisaar, but provably at his advice. Among other ideas, the livelier part of Centre toyed with this: what if we forget Reform and Soc Dems, and try and agree with the others?

No-one takes this too serious, but as long as clarity is evasive, nothing is ruled out.

Already, the parties (all but Reform) are playing with the thought of a national unity government, should coalition talks totally flop – with a prime minister sought outside the parties. Possible «state reform ministers» could be people like Raivo Vare. Or Indrek Neivelt, or Allar Jõks.

Those tossing these ideas are unaware of the utopian character thereof, while thinking that with Estonia faced with four years of such a different membership of parliament, they should not calculate within Riigikogu seats only.

As recalled by Mr Mikser, in 2007 Reform also called three parties to the table: IRL, Soc Dems and the Greens. «During the talks, they showed the Greens the way to the door. So this is definitely a tactic. Therefore, we are rather cautious about the approach,» he noted and stated that Soc Dems had not explicitly decided about attending the four-party consultations.

Reform is in suspense. «Well all parties are trying to show their face and boost their shares, but right now what we need is to put together a strong government. And Centre cannot be conclusively excluded either,» sounded their mutual mutterings yesterday, concern and caution two-in-one.