Centre Party top popular before elections

Photo: Erik Prozes

As general elections near, Public Broadcasting/Turu-uuringute AS poll shows Centre Party as frontrunner mediates ETV’s «Aktuaalne kaamera», while Free Party and EKRE look set to break into parliament – both supported by six percent of respondents.

During the past month Centre Party has spurted to lead the pack by 26 percent support (24 percent in December) while Reform Party trails second with 22 percent (a drop from 24 percent in December) and soc dems third by 16 percent (from 17 percent). The fourth in line is IRL with 15 percent (14 in December).

According to Turu-uuringute AS research manager Juhan Kivirähk, Centre and Reform have constantly swapped places this past half year. A month ago they enjoyed equal popularity. Now, squirrels have shed two percent of support.

«Beholding the campaign as such, with even Kaur Kender [a writer – edit] advising voting for Centre Party rather than Reformers, possibly the latter has overdone it someplace with its campaign,» said the social scientist. Also, Mr. Kivirähk sees the soc dems – a leader still this past spring – as dropping out from competition for the win: in January, they have shrunk into the near vicinity of IRL. This, the sociologist explains by unpopular decisions like same-sex law and the added weight of governmental responsibilities. 

The coalition shift served to hit IRL as well. «By swapping coalition partner, Reform Party was quite successful in pushing two competitors out of the game and, again, they have build the campaign on confrontation with Centre Party so the Reform-or-Centre has become central again,» observed Mr Kivirähk.

The sociologist notes it is IRL and SDE that have yielded most supporters to the two outsiders Free party and EKRE that have in January risen above Riigikogu threshold (in December, both were at three percent support).

The poll included interviews with over 1,000 individuals.