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The impact on Estonian businesses of the fall in the exchange rate of the Russian ruble and the sanctions imposed on Russia has been smaller than anticipated, it appears from an analysis by Swedbank.
Impact of Russian crisis on Estonian businesses smaller than anticipated - Swedbank
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«In 2014 our export flows to Russia made up only 10 percent [of all exports]. Of this, in turn, a large part was goods imported to Estonia for resale in Russia. Goods produced in Estonia make up only 23 percent of the exports to Russia,» Tauno Vanaselja, head of Swedbank's corporate financing division, said in a comment.
«The problems of Russia as a target country of export thus affect a very small number of companies most of which have a high awareness of risks. Our industrial exports have been well spread out both by region and by principal partners, and from the perspective of corporate target markets the share of the Russian market is rather marginal. Entrepreneurs have not oriented their activities solely towards Russia for quite some time,» he added.
The direct effect of the Russian crisis is the biggest in the farming sector where selling prices remain under continued pressure because of the sanctions, Vanaselja observed. «We believe that the price of milk will recover somewhat in the medium long term as a result of new markets and adjustment of supply, but liquidity problems of the sector's companies may persist until then,» he said.
«In the segment of east-bound transit and transport major setbacks have not been observed thus far, but developments are unforeseeable and difficult to predict, and transport sector entrepreneurs have adopted a cautious attitude. Generally speaking, the analysis showed that direct impacts of the Russian crisis can at the moment be judged to be rather modest. But Russia is an important market for countries where export partners of Estonian industrial companies operate. It is necessary to keep a careful eye on how our principal export partners are faring and how this might affect the indirect impact of the Russian crisis on Estonian businesses,» Vanaselja said.