The closer the elections, the weightier the polls and the keener the public attention. Too soon to put together coalitions in light of TNS Emor poll, freshly out. Still, two conclusions somewhat leap from the pages. Firstly, it’s intense at the top – the big parties are running rather in a pack. Secondly, the small ones broke into the picture – looks like at least one of these might clear the 5 percent parliamentary threshold, come March 1st.
The four ones in Riigikogu as elected four years ago are doing basically the same: Reform Party leading, Centre Party breathing down their neck lagging behind by some few percent, then come the soc dems, and IRL as fourth. The poll also went after the «second choice» where Reform, soc dems, and IRL look to overlap, and the voter-openness towards parties – here, Centre Party stands out as a definite «never» for 64 percent of respondents. Part of the voters still in-between, the top may come to look different yet.
Remarkably, the newcomers have begun to briskly shake the deck of cards. As first choice, Estonian Free party is backed by 8 percent and Conservative People’s Party by 5. Also, as usual in the run-up, the undecided camp is starting to shrink.
By the poll, people should take courage and see that every vote really matters – both for the threshold, the Riigikogu, and the coalition. Meaning: no need to fear the «wasting your vote» threat; should some politician begin to brazenly point that out, ignore him.
The support of the small parties is, no doubt, a reflection of the attention. But that comes not for nothing. The current parliamentary parties, except for one, have internally changed. Still, there comes the time the society tires of the same old faces and wants some freshness or just another way of thinking. Let’s think back to the local elections the last year but one where election coalitions broke into Tartu city council and came close to it in Tallinn.
By this poll, voting activity would be 60 percent – a number rather logical, considering the probable upswing as the Date draws nigh. As Riigikogu was last elected in 2011, we saw 63.5 percent cast their votes.