No faith in locals that sub gets caught

Whether triumphant or empty-handed after the intelligence operation amid isles of Stockholm – in its sixth day today – Swedes believe changes are a must when it comes to defence spending.

Sunday evening on ferryboat Victoria, an Estonian lady living abroad is feverishly seeking Internet connection. A moment ago, the on-board TV stated civilian vessels are banned on a dozen of square kilometres near Stockholm as ordered by Swedish navy.

Its feels serious as for the thousands dwelling on Vaxholm or some smaller islands, the ban would cut them off from grocery stores, doctor’s appointments, or their very own homes. The picture the lady detects in official Internet channels is the typical Swedish state approach: no announcements, no problems.

Monday afternoon, the little 1,200-strong Eastern coast village of Dalarö breathes a sigh of relief. For the couple of nights before that, the underwater search was on right at their doorstep.

«From my home window I saw the navy ship lights blinking on the waters,» recalls a Dalarö dweller called Robert. He wasn’t the only one as both Swedish and Norwegian TV channels were out on the berth, going live in the dark of the night. The locals whose matchbox homes reach all the way to the sea on the granite cliffs had a front row seat... 

The Swedish navy launched operation on Friday, about from the latitude of Stockholm. Without rest, night and day, the navy has combed the sea bottom, going North-East to South-West along the coast. During the week-end, the troops participating grew to a couple of hundred, and the vessels to a dozen.

According to Robert, as soon as the photo taken by Erik (27, a pseudonym) was published last week showing a surfacing submarine between the islands, he immediately recognised the spot as a few kilometres North Dalarö – in all probability.

Fumbling his pocket for a smartphone, Robert opens a navigation app for small ship captains. He tells me that yesterday’s statement on the 10-kilometre traffic ban was incorrect – in reality, the navy just restricted traffic, Sunday afternoon, for a couple of hours in the strait between the two islands Ornö and Utö.

After that, the intelligence operation headed on Southwards and is now centred between the little isle of Nåttarö and the ship route leading from Nynäshamn to Gdansk, Poland. By the very fact of no significant findings announced before reaching this point, Robert is turned sceptical.

«This is a vast and rather closed area. As shown by past experience, it is very hard on the area to find a sub – especially a one that sits silently still in the bottom,» says Robert. Between the isles, it suits the submarines well for though the depth is mainly 30–40 metres, 100 metre deeps abound.

For Swedes, submarine hunts are nothing new. Ever since the 1980ieas, the East coast Berga naval base has been a choice morsel for foreign intelligence. Subs spotted amid the Stockholm islands are frequent, and during these past three decades the Royal Navy has often picked up fresh trails. The difference now being: Sweden is underdog – as compared to the 1980ies peak, the nation has fewer sonar-equipped vessels, and the choppers can no longer see under water. The last futile hunt dates back to 2011.

«I don’t believe they’ll find anything this time either. By now, we’ve been after this object for four days and nothing has happened. In case the navy spots something shortly, they will probably continue; otherwise they will soon give up,» predicted Robert.

The day before yesterday, Estonian defence attaché Raul Tõnnov attended a Swedish defence forces briefing, but he was told nothing to add to the above. The Swedes have basis enough for the operation, he learned, but thus far links to Russians and the tanker NS Concord – adrift near Swedish shores for its second week – is yet to be confirmed. Whatever we’ve heard so far is rather the toil by Swedish media, not openness by their government.

According to Jana Vanaveski, deputy head at Estonian embassy in Stockholm, the intelligence operation lies in a broader context.   

Ms Vanaveski recalls how defence rose to limelight during Passover of 2013, as several Russian military planes threatened to cross Swedish air boundary. With Sweden unable to scramble its fighters, Russia’s aircraft had to be escorted by NATO ones.

«Back then, the government did not openly say that; a month later, Svenska Tag­bladet covered it. It was a shock and an awakening, the Swedes now say,» noted Ms Vanaveski.

While during the peak of 1980ies Sweden had its defence spending at 2.5 percent of GDP, ever since the Soviet Union collapsed the drop thereof has been constant. A mere 1.17 percent at the moment, is does show...

By the previous government already, a decision was taken that defence costs must rise. Now, it’s just the issue of how much. Today (Thursday), the new one-month-long Prime Minister Stefan Löfven is presenting the new defence budget.

Whether the sub search succeeds or fails, the painful stuff lies still ahead. Up to now, Swedish authorities have not had the habit of publishing border violations or foreign intelligence operations – it has only been done when counter-operations by Swedish army start to draw too many questions. As also evident in answers to Postimees by the Swedes who talked to us, they have insufficient information to take national defence related decisions or choose sides in the matter.

The thesis uttered by Swedish PM Stefan Löfven in Finland – this is no sub hunt, this is intelligence operation to collect information – does allow the navy the option to save face if they are leaving the area empty-handed.