Editorial: denial of Russian invasion increasingly impossible

Photo: twitter

This past Thursday may have been quite a marker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Even before, a large part of Europe realised Russia was responsible for military aid provided to separatists and their own troops trampling on neighbouring country soil; still, military operations in Ukraine were but semi-public. Since yesterday, the Russian presence in Eastern Ukraine is a lot more open – and aggressive.

Though Moscow continues to deny its coordinated systematic intervention, a change may be observed in the size and behaviour of its armed forces. No longer are the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine at pains to conceal their origin, and, considering the nature of the entire conflict, this is significant.

If the 1.5 hour Minsk meeting of Russian and Ukrainian presidents Putin and Poroshenko did have an effect at all, it was for the worst. While political observers busied themselves with analysing summit outcome, a massive invasion by Russia opened up a new front in East-Ukraine.

Any diplomatic solution will prove evasive till both parties at least agree on the description of what’s happening. Up to now, Western pressure to make Russia own up to its military presence in Ukraine has been rather fruitless.

A new type of war – as described in Postimees by Pierre Vaux, a journalist with Interpreter, thus redefining the goals of the aggressive party: no longer about who’s right, the aim is to create maximum confusion possible so as to retard reaction by the West. Till the tiniest doubt lingers whether the entire operation is controlled by Russia, Mr Putin may manoeuvre on unhindered. To a degree at least, thus far he has succeeded.  

This serves to paint a broader backdrop for the changes leading to the rather undisguised Russian military operations. The chief question now being: will the next Moscow move be an all-out massive invasion? And: what will be the Western leaders’ reaction to that? Hopes up, Ukraine is eyeing the UN Security Council which had its extraordinary meeting late last night. Presumably, the topic will also dominate EU Saturday summit, and the NATO one in Wales next week.

Already, the Ukrainian ambassador at EU has called for the alliance to extend wide-ranged military help. Both NATO and EU stand faced with heavy options: while fast results are lacking by the pulling of economic and diplomatic levers, no-one wants a far-reaching conflict.  

Not limited to Moscow, unwillingness to utter the word «invasion» also applies to the West. The instant the latter admits to Russia at war against Ukraine, a new situation is set regarding international law. And then the Western options will be graver yet.