Rasmussen: Russia’s actions may mean new defence plans for Baltics

Photo: Toomas Tatar

While several European nations seriously cut their defence budgets – up to 40 percent – Russia ratcheted theirs up 30 percent. In interview beneath, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen says NATO cannot keep disarming while Russians are doing the opposite and are threatening their neighbours.

How dangerous is the current situation for Ukraine?

The situation in Ukraine indeed is deeply alarming. Firstly and mostly because this is the first time in Europe after WW2 that a European state by force takes away a piece of another European state as we saw the Russians do in Crimea. Such military activity is illegal. Annexation of Crimea is illegal.

This in itself is deeply troubling, of course. But what’s more: this is going farther than Crimea and Ukraine. This is a part of a larger pattern. I mean, the Russians aim at restoring Russia’s influence in the former Soviet space and this is violation of the peaceful and freedom-loving principle of Europe.

Are there any signs at all that President Putin is pulling his troops back from Ukrainian borders and beginning to alleviate tensions in Eastern Ukraine, as he claims?

I must say we have seen no signs of Russia removing its troops from vicinity of Ukrainian border. We have hears such like announcements by Russia before, but in reality the troops have not been withdrawn. Therefore, we are very careful with such words from Russia.

I would be the first to welcome evidence of meaningful and actual withdrawal of forces by Russia from Ukrainian borders, as that would be a step towards calming the situation down.

A crime has already been committed: Russia occupied and annexed Crimea. Will the free world go back to business as usual with Russia if Mr Putin will not advance in Ukraine, but will not hand Crimea back?

The international community has not recognised the annexation of Crimea and we will not recognise it. According to international law, we still consider Crimea a part of Ukraine occupied by Russia. The answer to your question largely depends on future developments and Russia’s behaviour. As long as Russia keeps destabilising the situation in Ukraine, Russia will be isolated internationally. If Russia intervenes even more in Ukraine, this will be an historic mistake leading to even greater isolation of Russia. I have no doubt that in that case the international community will have to respond and that means harsher economic sanctions.

Has the West made strategic mistakes in relations with Russia over the past fifteen years, failing to understand the nature and essence of Russia?

We have done what we could to tie Russia to the international community in a constructive way. Over more than twenty years, we have tried to offer Russia opportunities, to create constructive relations with Russia.

For instance, in 1997 we entered into the basic NATO-Russia act whereby we created the framework for political and practical cooperation between Russia and NATO. Five years later, this was followed by the creation of the NATO-Russia Council so we might have dialogue, including mutual contacts between military personnel of both sides. At the 2010 summit, we decided to start developing strategic partnership between Russia and NATO.

I think we have done all the right things to constructively involve Russia, but now we have seen that Russia does not behave as a partner. Therefore, we must adjust our behaviour according to the new situation, as we also have done already.

Dou you believe that now that President Putin has sounded the alarm for everyone to hear, our European allies will start spending more money on defence?

The alarm surely has sounded. Russia has shown that we can no longer be sure of Europe being guaranteed peace and security. Therefore, we must change the tendency of these past years of Europe cutting defence costs. Some European nations have cut defence spending very deeply – up to 40 percent. At the same time, Russia has increased defence spending 30 percent. Such development cannot continue. We cannot keep disarming while Russians are doing the opposite and are threatening their neighbours. Therefore, I first of all urge NATO members in Europe to increase their defence spending. Here, Estonia is a good example, as Estonia has increased its defence spending and has by now achieved two percent of gross economic production.

When will we see all NATO members spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defence?

I do not believe we’ll see it very soon. A lot of European nations are still wrestling with their budgetary and economic problems, they are trying to cut budget deficit. That’s important as well, because if a country’s economy is weak, if they have budget deficit and the state is in deep debt, then the society of that country is the more vulnerable. Putting it straight: if you are bankrupt, you have no security. Therefore, budget policy is a part of defence policy.

Even so, defence costs money. As shown by the situation in Ukraine, lack of security will cost a lot more than defence spending. Therefore, in near future defence spending will definitely have to be boosted.

Will NATO have new plans for defending the Baltic Sea region and the Baltic States?

We never comment the details of our defence plans, but I can assure you that we have relevant plans for the defence of all NATO members, the three Baltic States included. As I alluded, we are currently reviewing our defence plans. Possibly, they will have to be developed and new plans created, to adjust to the new security situation created by Russia’s illegal military activity.

What do you say about chances to get even broader support by allies to build up defence for Baltics?

In our alliance, we have very strong commitment to collective defence. Up to now we have shown that the allies are ready to take the necessary steps to strengthen collective defence, and at the moment we are weighing the next steps. That may mean placement of troops, but it is a bit early to say right now where exactly and how. I am sure all the allies are ready to do all that it takes and as long as it takes.

Will Georgia get its NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP), and will Ukraine also get one?

A bit early to say. You will surely remember that we decided, at the Bucharest NATO summit in 2008, that Georgia and Ukraine will become members of NATO if they so desire and will meet the necessary conditions. When it comes to Ukraine, they meanwhile changed their policy and decided to pursue the policy not to join. We have fully respected that decision. We have a good partnership with Ukraine, in the NATO-Ukraine Commission, and we have decided to broaden the cooperation.

The new government of Georgia has confirmed that they are continuing their aspirations to join NATO. At the moment, Georgia is not meeting all the conditions yet, to receive the invitation to join NATO. Georgia has developed a lot and that will have to be underlined at the next summit, but it is not quite clear yet how exactly [to do it].

What do you think, will Sweden and Finland file an application in near future to join NATO?

The answer, naturally, is that this is for them to decide and NATO Secretary General will not intervene in domestic debates; even so, I follow their debates with great interest. It is obvious that Sweden and Finland desire close relations with NATO. They are very active partners and they invest in NATO exercises. They are also meeting the necessary requirements to become members of NATO should they so decide.

How do tensions in Europe affect NATO capabilities to pay attention to Afghanistan?  Which country will we leave behind?

We do have the strength to deal with several crises at one time. At the moment, the attention is focussed on Ukraine, but we are constantly dealing with Afghanistan. We will leave behind a much better country than it was 13 years ago. Afghanistan is no longer a terrorist haven from whence to launch attacks on the West. In that regard, we have achieved our goal.

Despite the many problems, we are seeing a much stronger society there. The economy is stronger. The educational system is a lot better: eight million kids go to school, and over a third of them are girls. Health care is much better: the expected lifespan has gone up, death rate of children has gone down. We have built dozens of thousands of kilometres of roads. In Afghanistan, you will find a very lively media which is necessary to create a stable democracy, but also to fight corruption and drug trafficking.