Prof Coricelli claimed that by now, the GDP difference between Estonia and the hypothetical non-EU counterpart will probably have grown – as shown by the fate of Croatia which is struggling much more than Estonia to recover from the economic crisis.
According to the professor, the main growth engine for EU member states has been the single market; but the differences between the states have emerged by skills in using money. «Financial development is a main variable, explaining why some states benefited more than the others. Estonia fits well into the picture, having been able to reap good benefits from joining the EU,» stated Prof Coricelli.
According to Eesti Pank economist Andres Saarniit, the analysis by scientists firstly points to the developmental edge derived from being in the EU. «An average employed Estonian household has, thanks to EU membership, arrived at the current income and consumption habits a couple of years earlier.»
What state would Estonia be in now, had it not joined the EU ion 2004? «Perhaps, the most illustrative mental experiment would be subtracting 10–15 percent of our current income,» offered Mr Saarniit, considering that the average growth bonus of states that joined in 2004 was 12 percent according to the study.
According to finance ministry fiscal policy chief Andrus Säälik, the initial positive effects started to appear while the ministry was still thinking about signing the association agreement.