Starting next week, NATO initial deterrence against Russia will significantly strengthen in Estonia – land, sea and air. Whether members of the alliance will agree to let the units stay for good, is now up to steadfastness of Estonian defence ministry and moves by Russia.
Even before NATO had time to do anything about placement of infantry in the Baltics, the US European command decided independently of NATO to distribute its 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team based in Vicenza, Italy, between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Each state will get a company of 150 men to be rotated till the end of the year – at least.
The American airborne brigade is an infantry unit without machines, specialised in close combat and counter attack, as well as keeping territory. Also, the company has parachute landing operation capacity.
According to Lieutenant Colonel Eero Rebo, deputy head of operations at HQ of Defence Forces, the Americans are due to arrive at the beginning of next week. It has not yet been decided which unit will accommodate them.
«Definitely, they will be operating together with the 1st Infantry Brigade and Scouts Battalion, at the Spring Storm first and then at the Saber Strike exercises in June. We will include them on all Scouts Battalion exercises, as much as possible, so they would get to know the Estonian landscape, the servicemen, in short – practicing the defence of Estonia,» said Lieut. Col. Rebo.
Defending air and sea
As part of the NATO package, since the beginning of May four Danish F-16A fighters will be based in the Ämari airbase. Along with these, the base will have about fifty Danes in readiness on location, in Estonia for the minimum of four months.
Also, the North Atlantic Council decided to send a NATO mine defence squadron to the Baltic Sea, consisting of five vessels. Its flagship will be the Norwegian vessel Valkyrien, accompanied by the Danish minehunter Makkum, the Belgian minehunter Bellis, the Norwegian minesweeper Otra, and the Estonian mine hunter Admiral Cowan.
According to Estonian naval chief Sten Sepper, the squadron’s primary task will be keeping sea routes open should NATO need to send additional units into the Baltics and Poland. Primarily here to deal with mines, the vessels have arms on board against possible attacks. For everyday activities, the squadron will have an exercise plan involving the waters of the different states. The squadron will have no home-base; rather, it will be stopping at ally ports.
Having invested the air and naval units, NATO European forces’ commander General Philip Breedlove is faced with two questions: should the alliance also invest ground troops into the Baltics – and should these then be permanent.
As predicted by defence minister Sven Mikser, addition is surely coming to the current deterrent measures. Encouragingly, ten states have already announced their readiness to have fighters involved in air policing over the Baltic States. There are also the states that, as prompted by the example of USA, have offered to send ground units.
Not enough
According to former defence minister Urmas Reinsalu, the deterrence measures is a good development – but not enough in the changed defence situation. As the Eastern neighbour has, during the crisis and the annexation of Crimea, constantly increased its military capacity and gained security-political ground, there’s no chance NATO may counter by temporary measures.
«It should be in our interests that a deceptive decrease of tensions in Ukraine should not prompt NATO to return to former practice. That would be the worst. Then, nothing would have changed essentially,» said Mr Reinsalu.
To avoid dire straits, Estonia must forcefully apply for permanent NATO boots on the ground. «We cannot let the moment slip, as now is our chance to present a clear package of clear measures,» said Mr Reinsalu.
One such was presented to NATO, by the former defence minister, in January, when he asked for a rotating infantry battalion for the Baltics. Back then, he got a cool reception; by now, all is different. Mr Reinsalu suggests the deterrent would be strong enough if it would be capable to push back Russia’s initial attack. For that, one or two infantry brigades should be permanently placed into the Baltics; also, the American Patriot missile complexes and air defence systems.
«The measure if sanctions are sufficient is not what we feel about them, but whether Russia reads them right,» says Mr Reinsalu. «Security deficit will remain even after the US company gets here. These units do indeed serve to deter, but will not be able to fight back attack by Russian Federation.»