McCain: Baltics now the vanguard

Photo: Tairo Lutter

Russian president desires to revive the empire and that makes one also worry for the Baltic States, said Republican US Senator John McCain, in Tallinn yesterday.

How do you assess President Barack Obama’s activities, up to now, as related to events in Ukraine?

I’m very disappointed that the President believed Vladimir Putin when he said he was not intending to invade Ukraine. That was immediately evident as the Ukrainian head of state Viktor Yanukovych was toppled, that Mr Putin would invade Crimea as he believed he needs Sevastopol.

It seems to me that our President still lacks a decent understanding of Mr Putin – with whom we have to do and what he wants to do. Mr Putin wants to revive the old Russian empire. That makes me worry about Moldova, and from there on for the Baltics.

How much more must Russia do that there would be a serious response?

That’s a good question, as up to now our response has been minimal – talking about the fact that by the aggression in Crimean Russia violated a strong and secure agreement. Thereat, however, USA imposed sanctions against 11 persons and one bank. Behaviour like that will only encourage Mr Putin to try more.

What then can be done?

Mush harsher sanctions. And equipping the Ukrainian government with defence weapons as right now while Russian agents are organising provocations and the Russian army is being kept and moved behind the border, the Ukrainian government does not even have decent defence weapons. For instance, they do not have night vision goggles, and other basic equipment.

The Ukrainians indeed do need light armament and probably anti-tank weapons, air defence weapons. First and foremost, however, they are lacking self-defence equipment, and that’s a shame that USA still hasn’t given these to Ukraine.

Also, long-term policy should be developed to help Europeans become independent from Russian energy. And, again – to toughen sanctions, which in shorter term may indeed prove financially harmful for some large US and European corporations. Also, it must be made clear that there comes a point where all options are on the table.

What do you mean by these options?

Like increasing our military presence in such states as the Baltics, have more regular military exercises. It seems to me that we might broaden the activities of Radio Free Europe, transmitting broadcasts rivalling the Russian media – especially to the regions with a lot of Russian speaking people.

Also, Mr Putin needs to be internationally isolated – the outlaw that he is –, in G8 for instance, and other organisations. For diplomatic and economic isolation, one day he will be paying a high price.

Aren’t you afraid that the increase of military presence – in Estonia, for instance – may be interpreted in Russia as a provocation behind the borders?

I heard the same talk during the cold war, while Ronald Reagan placed cruise missiles and Pershing II mid-range missiles into Germany and Western Europe. Hundreds of thousands gathered to demonstrate against it, the move was considered provocative.

Mr Reagan came out with a presentation on behalf of the countries that had fallen under communism – that, also, was seen as a provocation. There’s always the appeasers and history hasn’t proven that peacemaking and appeasement would ever have been successful with people like Mr Putin.

What should NATO do with Estonia in a situation like this?

I think we should be in close cooperation with the Baltics, and with Estonia in particular. We should have a bit larger permanent military presence here. We should do exercises. Also, every NATO member should make the investments needed for its defence capabilities, which is 2 percent of GDP – like Estonia does, among the Baltics.

Over the past 15 years, the face of Europe has changed a lot, and we must shift many of our priorities. The Baltics are now the vanguard. Mr Putin must be reminded of NATO article 5 – an attack against a single member is attack against the entire alliance, and the Baltics are members of the NATO.

And NATO is ready to defend us if needed?

If – I do not believe it’d happen – Mr Putin would hypothetically attack one of the Baltic States, not to defend them would spell the end of NATO: The attack would then mark the death of NATO.

You have repeatedly emphasised that NATO should increase its presence here. Does the US public agree that there is an obvious need for that?

The US public is very much disturbed by the activities of Mr Putin. Quite numerous support groups have been formed, in support of Ukraine and of the Baltics. Increasing military presence here, it would be hardly noticed in the United States; even so, it would be supported by many who care a lot about these countries.

Talking about Ukraine itself: how do you feel, are the current events in Eastern Ukraine similar to those in Crimea – or different, rather?

I feel they are similar to what happened in Crimea, and also similar to what happened in the 1930ies, in run up to WW2. The methodology is the same that was once used by the Soviet Union.

The tactics are familiar – we have seen it before. The issue now is, will Mr Putin be calculating how high a price he might pay for invading Eastern-Ukraine? The Ukrainian government and people did not fight for Crimea, but they will fight if Mr Putin decides to invade the Eastern part of the country. Also, there is the danger that he heads to the South and to the very Moldova.

But do you think Mr Putin wants to invade Eastern Ukraine after all? According to numerous analysts, the events in Eastern Ukraine are meant to cause tensions and to discredit the authorities, in Kiev.

I think Mr Putin desires to damage the ability of the government in Kiev to deal with economic corruption and to prepare for new powers to come into place. Probably, he wants at least some kind of autonomy for these Eastern parts of Ukraine.

Depending on his calculations, Mr Putin may want to take over territory and organise a referendum there. I believe he is right now counting the costs and benefits of various moves. So far, his moves have meant almost no costs to him.

Can we be sure at all that there will be any costs? Up to now, Mr Putin has gotten what he wanted.

I can only say that if we do not learn from history, we will pay a very heavy price. And there are people like me who are doing all in our power to influence our government and people all over the world to come out and support Ukraine which, while we are talking here, is being torn in pieces.

So far, the White House has been unwilling to send military aid to Ukraine. May that change?

I hope it will. I will continue to urge the government members to allow giving defence weapons to Ukraine. If we do not do this, Mr Putin will get the signal that further steps in Ukraine will cost nothing. And that’s a very disturbing idea.

Can a war in Ukraine be avoided?

I believe the Ukrainians are ready to fight against these provocations and takeovers. And I hope we can equip them with means to defend themselves.