Growth limited to Tallinn, Tartu and Maardu

Photo: Marina Puškar

By 2040, Estonia will have five less cities with over 10,000 inhabitants.

At the moment, there are 14 Estonian cities with more than 10,000 inhabitants. In quarter of a century, five will drop off –Haapsalu, Jõhvi, Võru, Valga, and Kuressaare.

This is what Statistical Office says, in its population forecast till 2040 regarding the future of the 14 largest cities of Estonia.

According to Statistical Office, continuance of currents trends over the next 30 years will lead to shrinkage and aging of nearly all Estonian cities; even so, the fate varies somewhat. Võru, Valga, Viljandi, Kuressaare, Narva, and Kohtla-Järve stand to lose a whopping 30 percent of their current tally.

Thus, in 26 years, Valga would have 8,934 inhabitants instead of the current 12,665. As acknowledged by Valga mayor Kalev Härk, the drop of population is felt and fearful – and while the 30-year-predictions smack somewhat of fortune-telling, they still show the overall trends should nothing change.

«Today, Tallinn keeps growing on account of the rest of Estonia, and up to now the governments have stood helplessly by. Sure, such development serves the interests of investors active in Tallinn and its surroundings, but for Estonia as a whole it spells trouble. In the worst case, such developments would affect Estonia’s security, even its independence,» said Mr Härk, adding that therefore Estonian government and its agencies ought to come up with a credible plan how to maintain Estonia’s integrity as the population shrinks, and how to find the way back to growth.

As predicted, Viljandi’s population will drop from 17,640 to 12,530.

Viljandi mayor Ando Kiviberg claims the city isn’t currently plagued by unemployment or low wages, but people trickle out just the same. «Talking to local entrepreneurs, in the industrial companies geared towards exports there’s lots of vacancies and they are having trouble filling the orders,» said Mr Kiviberg. Jobs are available in metal, textile, and building material industries.

According to Mr Kiviberg, the companies are even offering 30 percent better wages as in comparable jobs in Tallinn and Harju County. «For me, that was a shock: it’s not the wages, it’s something else,» said Mr Kiviberg.

He said in several cities of Estonia young people have difficulty finding homes to rent, the rental market practically absent.

As other county centres shrink, Tallinn, Tartu and Maardu win out.

As predicted, by 2040 Maardu will have 18,446 inhabitants – instead of the current 17,794. «We must really try hard, being next doors to the capable Tallinn. We must be able to provide the same benefits and even more,» said mayor of Maardu Nikolai Vojeikin.

At the same time, said he, renting an apartment in Maardu is considerably cheaper than in Tallinn. It is also easier to find work there, so Tallinn and Maardu are equally powerful magnets, mutually.

While Estonia’s 14 top cities currently hold 69 percent of its people, in 30 years the percentage will be 61. Should current population tendencies continue, the dominance of Tallinn and Tartu will increase. Especially that of Tallinn: while right now Estonia’s capital has 31 percent of the population of the nation, by 2024 it will possess 35 percent.