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According to Retired General Ants Laaneots, former Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin wants to pressure the Ukrainian government to step down, but does not desire war and bloodshed.
Laaneots: Russia to stay in Crimea
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«In Russia, there is no public will to make Crimea an independent republic or to annex it to Motherland, so to speak. They have stressed their desire to see an Autonomous Republic of Crimea within Ukraine. Here, longer-term interests come into play. They are using Crimea and the current situation to put pressure on the Ukrainian government,» said the Prime Minister’s adviser in matters pertaining to national defence.
«Ukrainians are in dire straits. The state coffers are empty. For two months, civil servants haven’t been paid their wages, or have been paid a tiny part of it. Now they proclaimed mobilisation, but what will they feed the mobilised soldiers with? Where will they save the money to buy fuel and cover other costs? That money is not there.»
According to ret. Gen. Laaneots, Russia will now switch into delay tactics, waiting for the people to grow discontented.
«Clearly, Putin does not want war not bloodshed. He understands that would breed even more enmity between Ukrainians and Russians. If he wants to get a friendly state, he cannot do that. Ukrainians themselves do not want war, as they are weak and there are many who are hesitant, and who are Russia-minded.»
As pointed out by ret. Gen. Laaneots, Russia has so far avoided armed conflicts. «That, we also saw when they went to disarm the Ukrainian units based in Crimea,» said he.
According to him, we must also talk about the Tartars. «The pretext was that they are more afraid of the Tartars than of Ukrainians, and I think this is right. There are 300,000 Tartars over there, who were once deported but have now returned. These are Muslims, and substantially more bloodthirsty than Ukrainians.»
«A few days ago, the Tartars announced they do not see themselves within Russia, as they want Crimea within Ukraine. They started to compile their own self defence units,» said the ret. General.
«The Russians fear that the weapons of Ukrainian units may fall into Tartar hands. When the Russians went to take the arms away from Ukrainian units, it was done peacefully; and, if Ukrainian officers resisted, they did not use force to do it.»
According to ret. Gen. Laaneots, Russia’s plan has also partially backfired, as they couldn’t mobilise the Russian-minded in East-Ukraine.
«Moscow did a miscalculation. They supposed that the Russian-minded in Eastern Ukraine will now actively step forth and support remaining in Russian sphere of influence. That did not work out as spectacularly, and therefore they have no pretext to take their forces there. They have nobody to protect. In Crimea, they will stay as long as the central government issue will be solved.»
According to ret. Gen. Laaneots, the passivity of Western Europe also poses a threat, as this would embolden Putin and, in the future, the Baltics may fall victim.
«Seeing the impotence of Western Europe, I would say it’s like a rich, aging and slightly senile old woman, who only grumbles and that’s all she ever does. If this policy continues, Putin’s policy will also continue the same way.»
Ret. Gen Laaneots underlines that the west must do something. «I am sceptical concerning Western Europe. The Americans will probably do something, as they cannot any longer afford the luxury as with the 2008 Georgia war, when the aggressor went unpunished,» said the retired General. «I am sceptical regarding the US president [Barack Obama], for he is too soft. [The US secretary of state John] Kerry has, on several occasions, spoken up strong.»
According to ret. Gen. Laaneots, USA will probably not employ military measures. «Maybe for Russia, political and economic measures are more sensitive. The Russian economy is not in the best of shape. As predicted by Russian experts, stagnation will prevail for at least ten years,» said he.
Dmitri Linter organises volunteers for Crimea
The Kremlin-minded activist Dmitri Linter who gained prominence during the April Riots [of the Bronze Soldier disturbances in Tallinn – edit], has started compiling a group of volunteers to go into Crimea, now under Russian invasion, to «fulfil peacekeeping and humanitarian tasks».
On Sunday, Mr Linter wrote on his Facebook page that the party Rodina, the recently created international movement The Russian Internationale, and numerous other patriotic organisations are calling volunteers to participate in a peacekeeping and humanitarian mission in Crimea.
«Whoever, from Europe, wants to support our comrades in Ukraine and to relax in open air, write me. We will guarantee travel costs, catering, lodgings, and training. We will stand for peace in the world,» wrote the man who has stated Moscow, in Facebook, as his current place of residence.