Please note that the article is more than five years old and belongs to our archive. We do not update the content of the archives, so it may be necessary to consult newer sources.
/nginx/o/2014/03/28/2921218t1h5e0f.jpg)
/nginx/o/2014/02/26/2859280t1ha9ee.jpg)
After 26 years, in 2040, some 1,195,000 people will be dwelling in Estonia, predicts the Statistical Office population survey published yesterday. Should current trends continue, each year will cut 4,800 people off the figures – 0.4 per cent of the population.
The gender and age balance of the nation will also undergo change. By age-groups, the male-female difference will decrease, as men’s expected lifespan will grow and exodus includes more ladies. The main result, however: the population will considerably age.
Percentage of the pension-aged will rise from current 18 per cent to 28 per cent; those under 15 will shrink from 16 to 14 percent. All told, the percentage of dependants, as compared to those in working age, will rise from 51 percent to 70. While, currently, there are two working aged people for each dependant, in 2040 there will be three workers for two dependants.
Three supporting two
Here, the experts smell the greatest danger. «When the age-structure of a society gets out of order, the state’s entire economic and social system collapses,» said Andres Arrak, an economist. Mr Arrak predicted that in the Estonia of the future, working people will no longer be able to maintain the pensions and health care system. Also, the current 40-year-olds have no hope to get a considerable state pension, said he. «The word «pension» will remain and some kind of a sum will be paid; but this will not be something one can live on, in one’s older days – that’s a dead end road,» claimed Mr Arrak.
To ease the situation, he suggested that the state lower parents income tax – at the birth of the second child, by a quarter; at the birth of the third child, by another quarter; starting with the fourth child, parents would be exempt from income tax.
Economic geographer Hardo Aasmäe went even further – in his opinion, starting the third kid the state should assume all costs of child-rearing. «Starting the third child, no matter how many there are, the society must totally pay for their raising: food, shelter, clothing, educational costs, and whatever,» listed Mr Aasmäe. According to his vision, the money needed could, among other things, be collected from the childless, who in his opinion ought to be taxed.
Work till you die
Both Mr Aasmäe and Mr Arrak are convinced that bringing in immigrants will not solve working force shortage; instead, they stressed, pension age will have to go, people having to work their whole life long. Economist Viktor Trasberg begged to differ, claiming that foreign workers are the solution; these, however, should be educated here.
«Those who would fit us, we should prepare them for work ourselves,» noted the economist, explaining that next to universities, higher vocational and professional educational institutions ought also to open English language curricula and bring in foreign students. «Increase of foreign workers is probably inevitable,» said Mr Trasberg.
The two main factors for shrinking population – low birth rate and exodus – are strongly correlated, as the latter includes numerous fertile-aged women giving birth elsewhere. According to Statistical Office director-general Andres Oopkaup, it is up to the society to put brakes on these trends while we still have the chance.
«Not with a jerk, of course, as we shouldn’t lay overly great expectations on birth-rate; but surely there are the women, currently, who would like to have more children, yet, sensing the danger of poverty, they opt for fewer children,» said he.
According to Andres Arrak, the next ten years will be decisive for the future of the nation, the young people having realised that in near future Estonian wages aren’t going to catch up with Finland, for instance, therefore leaving the country.
«If, during this ten years, nothing radical is done in Estonia – if tax system isn’t altered, if there will be no educational nor administrative reform –, then, I think, we are on a very fast line towards bankruptcy,» said Mr Arrak.
The population prognosis of Statistical Office was prepared in cooperation with scientists of University of Tartu. The forecast is based on birth-rate, death-rate, and migration models, built on 2012 data and assuming the population trends of recent years to continue.